Should I Buy FNWB? FNWB 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy First Northwest Bancorp (FNWB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

10.360

1 Day change

52 Week Range

12.100

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price (~10.68) is sitting near the pivot and just below first resistance (10.898), with near-term pattern odds skewed slightly negative over the next day/week.
Medium-term upside exists (analyst PT 13.50, improving margin, insider buying), but it’s not being confirmed by strong trading signals today and hedge funds are aggressively reducing exposure.
Best stance at this exact level: Hold / avoid new buys today unless you’re comfortable with a choppy, catalyst-dependent grind higher.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Structure: Bullish moving-average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests an ongoing uptrend bias.
Momentum: MACD histogram positive (0.017) but contracting, implying upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
RSI: ~58 (neutral-to-slightly-bullish), not overbought and not a strong “must-buy” momentum reading.
Key levels: Pivot 10.671 (price is essentially on it). Resistance R1 10.898 then R2 11.039; Support S1 10.444 then S2 10.303.
Probabilistic trend (pattern analogs): ~60% chance of -0.54% next day, -0.15% next week, +3.78% next month (near-term softness, better 1-month skew).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Positive Catalysts

- Analyst catalyst: Piper Sandler upgrade to Overweight with PT $13.50 (visibility improving for credit metrics; legal overhang/costs expected to abate).
- Operating trend: Net interest margin improved to 3.00% (from 2.91% prior quarter) and deposit costs eased to 2.12%.
- Balance sheet: Risk-based capital ratio steady around 13.6%, indicating solid capitalization.
- Flow/sentiment: Insiders are buying (buying amount +114.71% over the last month).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Smart money flow: Hedge funds are selling (selling amount +929.58% over the last quarter), a meaningful sentiment headwind.
- Earnings quality/growth: Latest quarter shows weak profitability trends (see financial section), which can cap valuation expansion.
- Event/catalyst gap: No new major positive catalyst cited beyond gradual margin/deposit improvement and the earlier upgrade.
- Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available (no supportive signal from that channel).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter season: 2025/Q4.
Growth: Revenue increased to $14.39M (+7.46% YoY), indicating some top-line improvement.
Profitability: Net income dropped to $0.382M (-113.59% YoY) and EPS fell to -0.04 (-87.50% YoY) in the provided snapshot, showing profitability pressure/volatility.
From the news summary (same reporting date): company cited Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.04 and revenue $18.38M, while highlighting margin improvement—overall takeaway is mixed results with better margin trends but inconsistent bottom-line performance.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating change: (2025-11-07) Piper Sandler upgraded to Overweight from Neutral.
Price target change: PT raised to $13.50 from $10.50.
Wall Street pro view (pros): shares viewed as overly discounted vs TBV; improving credit visibility; legal overhang expected to diminish; confidence in new CEO execution.
Wall Street con view (cons): thesis relies on continued credit improvement and legal-cost fade; current earnings remain uneven, which can delay rerating.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast FNWB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FNWB is 13.5 USD with a low forecast of 13.5 USD and a high forecast of 13.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 10.360

Low

13.5

Averages

13.5

High

13.5

Current: 10.360

Low

13.5

Averages

13.5

High

13.5

Piper Sandler

Neutral -> Overweight

upgrade

AI Analysis

2025-11-07

Reason

Piper Sandler

Price Target

AI Analysis

2025-11-07

upgrade

Neutral -> Overweight

Reason

Piper Sandler upgraded First Northwest Bancorp to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $13.50, up from $10.50, based on recently improved visibility for credit metrics to further improve as well as with encouraging prospects for its legal overhang and related costs likely to substantially abate within the next few quarters. Based on these factors, the firm believes shares are currently overly discounted at 0.56x TBV. Piper is also confident that new President and CEO Curt Queyrouze's prior experiences navigating complex legal situations and building strong community bank franchises will steadily propel First Northwest's profitability closer to peers.

FNWB Should I Buy

FNWB Should I Buy

Should You Buy First Northwest Bancorp (FNWB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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