Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: trend structure is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and price is sitting right on the pivot (~70.1), which is not an advantageous risk/reward entry.
Near-term odds skew choppy: pattern-based stats imply a decent next-day bounce chance, but weaker next-week expectation (-5.33%), which aligns with the still-negative MACD.
Action: HOLD / avoid chasing today. A better “must-act” entry would typically be either a breakout and hold above ~75.3 (R1) or a pullback closer to ~64.9 (S1); at ~70 you’re in the middle with no proprietary buy trigger.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bearish moving-average stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) signals the broader downtrend remains intact despite the strong regular-session pop.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.949) but contracting, suggesting downside momentum is fading (early stabilization), not a confirmed uptrend.
RSI(6): 53.6 (neutral) — no momentum edge for an immediate buy.
Key levels:
Pivot: ~70.105 (price is essentially sitting on it)
Resistance: 75.312 (R1), then 78.529 (R2)
Support: 64.899 (S1), then 61.682 (S2)
Tape read: Regular market +4.64% but post-market -1.50% suggests some buyers faded after-hours; not strong “follow-through” behavior yet.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment skew: Put/Call > 1 on both open interest (1.15) and volume (1.14) implies slightly bearish/defensive positioning.
Volatility: IV (30D) ~62.4 vs historical vol ~45.1 and IV percentile ~77 indicates elevated expected movement (options are priced rich).
Activity: Today’s options volume is elevated vs its 30-day average (2.65x), consistent with positioning ahead of the upcoming earnings window.
Takeaway: Options market is not confirming a clean bullish setup; it’s pricing higher uncertainty with a modest bearish tilt.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
Earnings catalyst upcoming: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-19 after hours (can trigger a sharp repricing if comps/margins improve).
Financial trend is improving YoY (revenue, EPS, net income up in the latest reported quarter), supporting the longer-term recovery narrative.
Some Street commentary points to 2026 housing/discretionary demand improvement and potential market share gains as a tailwind.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
and IV is elevated, implying the market expects turbulence rather than a steady grind higher.
Net income: $57.26M, +10.78% YoY (profit growth outpacing revenue).
EPS: $0.53, +10.42% YoY.
Gross margin: 43.4%, -0.14% YoY (slight margin pressure; not a major collapse, but not expanding either).
Overall: Growth is positive and improving at the earnings line, but margins aren’t clearly inflecting upward yet—important for a sustained re-rate.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst trend: mixed ratings with price targets generally trimmed/reset, though sentiment has improved versus prior bearishness.
Notable moves:
TD Cowen (2026-01-20): PT up to $80, Hold.
Barclays (2026-01-08): PT cut to $70, Equal Weight.
Telsey (2025-12-17): PT cut to $80, Outperform.
Stifel (2025-12-16): PT cut to $90, Buy.
Goldman (2025-11-13): upgraded to Neutral (from Sell), PT $71.
Piper Sandler (2025-11-12): upgraded to Overweight, PT $80.
Evercore (2025-11-11): PT cut to $65, In Line.
Wall Street pros: expected 2026 demand normalization, potential comp improvement, market share gains, and a better housing backdrop.
Wall Street cons: near-term trends still subdued, multiple PT cuts signal tempered conviction, and execution/margin trajectory needs to prove out.
Wall Street analysts forecast FND stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FND is 77.45 USD with a low forecast of 65 USD and a high forecast of 90 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FND stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FND is 77.45 USD with a low forecast of 65 USD and a high forecast of 90 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
8 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 66.650
Low
65
Averages
77.45
High
90
Current: 66.650
Low
65
Averages
77.45
High
90
TD Cowen
Hold
upgrade
$77 -> $80
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
Reason
TD Cowen
Price Target
$77 -> $80
AI Analysis
2026-01-20
upgrade
Hold
Reason
TD Cowen raised the firm's price target on Floor & Decor to $80 from $77 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the hardlines group. Planet Fitness is TD's top idea, followed by Home Depot and O'Reilly Automotive.
Barclays
Seth Sigman
Equal Weight
downgrade
$78 -> $70
2026-01-08
Reason
Barclays
Seth Sigman
Price Target
$78 -> $70
2026-01-08
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays analyst Seth Sigman lowered the firm's price target on Floor & Decor to $70 from $78 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm is positive on the broadlines, hardlines and food retail sector entering 2026. It sees improvements in discretionary goods demand with potential for a "modest bump" from consumer tax savings ahead and interest rate cuts.
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