Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is below first support (~427.97) with bearish momentum still accelerating (negative MACD expansion), which often leads to another leg down before a durable bounce.
Fundamentals are strong (36% revenue growth, 31% EPS growth in 2026/Q2) and multiple Wall St targets remain well above current price, but the market’s post-earnings selloff signals near-term positioning/risk-off and “premium multiple” concerns.
Better risk/reward appears after stabilization (reclaiming 428 and holding) or a flush toward the next support zone (400) where buyers typically re-engage.
Trend/Momentum: Sharp breakdown on earnings reaction (regular session -6.16%) with MACD histogram at -5.49 and worsening (bearish momentum increasing).
RSI: RSI(6) ~23 indicates short-term oversold conditions, which can support a bounce, but oversold can persist when momentum is strongly negative.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest a transition phase; currently not confirming an uptrend.
Key levels: Price 423 is below S1 (427.97). Next notable support S2 ~400.42. Resistance/pivot overhead ~472.56, then ~517.14.
Pattern-based forward skew: Model indicates mildly positive next day but negative 1-week (-3.29%) and 1-month (-6.48%) bias—consistent with “dead-cat bounce then drift lower” risk.
Options Data
Neutral
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: OI put/call ~0.97 is near-neutral (no strong fear/hedge skew in outstanding positions).
Flow/Sentiment: Volume put/call ~0.26 is call-heavy (traders leaning bullish/speculating on rebound).
Volatility: 30D IV ~68.31 vs HV ~58.27 with IV percentile ~76.89 → options pricing implies elevated expected move after the earnings shock.
Activity: Today’s volume 463 (80% of 30D avg) with open interest elevated vs avg (167% of avg) → notable post-event participation, but not a clear directional “capitulation” signal by itself.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
14
Positive Catalysts
2026/Q2 was a clear “beat” quarter: record revenue ~$1.13B (+35.9% YoY) and EPS $3.11 (+30.7% YoY).
Analysts broadly lifted targets (Barclays $548 Overweight; Susquehanna up to $570 Positive), highlighting faster-than-expected high-performance compute ramp.
Hedge funds are accumulating aggressively (buying amount +824% QoQ), which often supports medium-term demand.
Production expansion/capacity buildout could extend growth runway if AI/HPC optical demand stays strong.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
with accelerating bearish MACD increases odds of a retest toward ~
Near-term probabilistic bias remains negative over 1 week/1 month based on similar-pattern backtests.
Gross margin: 12.15%, up ~0.41 YoY (slight improvement; margins still relatively tight, so execution matters).
Ownership/trading context: Insiders neutral (no notable recent signal), while hedge funds are meaningfully buying (supportive longer-term).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent direction: Price targets have been raised following the quarter/preview cycle (Barclays to $548; Susquehanna to $570; B. Riley to $452).
Ratings mix: Bullish tilt overall (Overweight/Positive initiations and reiterations), but with a notable caution flag from B. Riley’s Neutral due to valuation/premium multiple.
Wall St “pros” view (pros): AI/HPC ramp and optical networking tailwinds; targets imply sizable upside from ~423.
Wall St “cons” view (cons): Datacom described as flattish and valuation sensitivity is high—any forward uncertainty can keep pressure on shares.
Wall Street analysts forecast FN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FN is 544.83 USD with a low forecast of 499 USD and a high forecast of 600 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FN is 544.83 USD with a low forecast of 499 USD and a high forecast of 600 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 442.700
Low
499
Averages
544.83
High
600
Current: 442.700
Low
499
Averages
544.83
High
600
Wolfe Research
Peer Perform -> Outperform
upgrade
$540
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
Reason
Wolfe Research
Price Target
$540
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
upgrade
Peer Perform -> Outperform
Reason
Wolfe Research upgraded Fabrinet to Outperform from Peer Perform with a $540 price target.
Wolfe Research
Peer Perform -> Outperform
upgrade
$540
2026-02-04
New
Reason
Wolfe Research
Price Target
$540
2026-02-04
New
upgrade
Peer Perform -> Outperform
Reason
As previously reported, Wolfe Research upgraded Fabrinet to Outperform from Peer Perform with a $540 price target. With the whole data center ecosystem looking to diversify and scale their supply bases "massively," the firm sees "lots of business that can potentially accrue to the company right now," calling the current state of the industry "a great environment for Fabrinet."
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