Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the chart is mildly bullish but momentum is fading (MACD contracting) and near-term upside looks limited vs nearby resistance.
Options positioning is modestly bullish on open interest (put/call 0.53) but not confirmed by volume (put/call 1.0) and overall liquidity is thin; this doesn’t signal a strong “buy now” setup.
Fundamentals show revenue growth but a sharp YoY earnings drop in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3), which weakens the near-term conviction.
Influential/political trading: no congress trading data available in the last 90 days; hedge funds/insiders shown as neutral (no notable recent trend).
Technical Analysis
Price context: post-market 106.68 after -1.47% regular session; sitting close to the pivot (106.49), implying a “decision zone,” not a clean breakout.
Momentum: MACD histogram positive (0.0515) but positively contracting, suggesting upside momentum is weakening.
RSI(6) 54.62: neutral—no oversold bounce signal and no overbought breakout signal.
Levels to watch:
Support: S1 104.52 (then S2 103.30)
Resistance: R1 108.46 (then R2 109.68)
Pattern-based forward bias (similar candlesticks): ~+0.72% next day, ~-0.21% next week, ~+0.75% next month—small expected moves, consistent with a “hold/await confirmation” setup rather than a strong entry.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment from positioning:
Open interest put/call = 0.53 (more calls than puts outstanding) → mildly bullish positioning.
Volume put/call = 1.0 (puts and calls balanced today) → no strong bullish follow-through from traders today.
Volatility/pricing:
IV 30d ~30.39 vs historical vol ~20.35 → options priced richer than realized vol.
IV percentile ~9.96 / IV rank ~9.18 → IV is low relative to its own history (options comparatively “cheap” vs its typical range).
Activity/liquidity:
Very low absolute volume (todays volume 6; calls 3, puts 3) → signals are less reliable.
Volume vs 30D avg elevated (8.57x) and OI vs avg elevated, but from a small base—still not a high-conviction read.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
11
Positive Catalysts
Corporate action: FEMSA completed separation from Grupo Nós JV with Raízen, retaining OXXO stores in Brazil and a distribution center—simplifies structure and keeps strategic retail footprint.
Technical backdrop remains trend-supportive (bullish MA alignment).
Upcoming event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-27 (pre-market) can act as a catalyst if margins/earnings rebound or guidance improves.
Takeaway: growth is present, but earnings quality/margins weakened materially—this is a key reason the stock is a hold rather than a buy right now.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating/price target change data was provided in the dataset, so a verified recent trend cannot be stated.
Wall Street-style pro view (based on provided info): resilient revenue growth, strategic simplification in Brazil, and a technically constructive long-term trend (bullish MA stack).
Wall Street-style con view: sharp YoY earnings decline and margin compression reduce confidence in near-term upside; without fresh upgrades/raised targets or a clear technical breakout, conviction is limited.
Wall Street analysts forecast FMX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FMX is 103.5 USD with a low forecast of 102 USD and a high forecast of 105 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FMX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FMX is 103.5 USD with a low forecast of 102 USD and a high forecast of 105 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 107.320
Low
102
Averages
103.5
High
105
Current: 107.320
Low
102
Averages
103.5
High
105
Barclays
Equal Weight
maintain
$107 -> $105
AI Analysis
2025-11-03
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$107 -> $105
AI Analysis
2025-11-03
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Femsa to $105 from $107 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The Q3 results for the Mexico consumer names displayed a continuation of softer consumer trends as well as the emergence of higher financing costs and operating pressure, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
JPMorgan
Neutral
maintain
$96 -> $105
2025-10-20
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$96 -> $105
2025-10-20
maintain
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Femsa to $105 from $96 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares as part of a Q3 earnings preview for the Mexican retail sector. The firm believes trends are likely to be weaker in Q3 compared to Q2.
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