Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the primary trend is still bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) and upside to Wall St. target is limited (~$14 vs ~$13.43 post-market).
Best near-term setup would be a momentum buy only on a clean break above ~$13.93 (R1); otherwise risk/reward favors waiting or holding.
Event-driven catalyst (Middlefield merger vote Feb 10) is supportive, but options positioning (very put-heavy open interest) suggests cautious-to-bearish sentiment into the event.
Practical read: near-term range bias unless it reclaims 13.93+; failure back below 13.31 raises odds of a pullback toward 12.69.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Put open interest (1071) vastly exceeds call open interest (253) → open-interest put/call ratio 4.23, typically a cautious/bearish or hedged positioning.
Flow: Today’s option volume is small (20 puts, 0 calls) but elevated vs 30-day avg (222% of average), implying a modest spike in protective activity.
Volatility: 30D IV ~64.96 with IV percentile ~78 → options are relatively expensive, consistent with event risk (merger vote) and/or hedging demand.
Sentiment takeaway: Options market is not signaling aggressive upside speculation; it looks more like hedging/defense into catalysts.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
growth: Revenue +12.24% YoY and EPS +2.63% YoY indicate continued operating momentum despite credit noise.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technicals remain bearish (MA stack), so the tape is not confirming a new uptrend yet.
Analyst commentary flagged Q4 as disappointing due to higher net charge-offs (NCOs) and PPNR shortfall (credit/earnings quality concern).
Limited upside to the maintained Street target: Piper Sandler remains Neutral with $14 PT, recently cut from $16.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $48.595M, up 12.24% YoY (solid top-line growth).
Net income: $14.638M, up 1.72% YoY (profit growth slower than revenue).
EPS: $0.39, up 2.63% YoY (modest improvement).
Quality note from Street: higher NCOs and PPNR shortfall in Q4 suggest some pressure under the surface even as headline profitability remains stable.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating trend: Piper Sandler stays Neutral; price target lowered to $14 (from $16) on 2026-01-29 following a weaker-than-hoped Q4.
Prior coverage initiation: Neutral with $14 PT (2025-11-21), citing improving profitability already largely reflected in valuation.
Wall Street pros: expects credit costs to revert lower in Q1; optimistic on profitability improvement and strategic benefits from the Middlefield acquisition.
Wall Street cons: valuation already prices in improvements; Q4 credit/PPNR issues reduce near-term confidence and cap enthusiasm.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available (last 90 days). Hedge funds noted as Neutral; insiders are net buyers.
Wall Street analysts forecast FMNB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FMNB is 15 USD with a low forecast of 14 USD and a high forecast of 16 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FMNB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FMNB is 15 USD with a low forecast of 14 USD and a high forecast of 16 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 13.320
Low
14
Averages
15
High
16
Current: 13.320
Low
14
Averages
15
High
16
Piper Sandler
Neutral
downgrade
$16 -> $14
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$16 -> $14
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Farmers National Banc (FMNB) to $14 from $16 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. While Q4 was a disappointing quarter given higher NCOs and a PPNR shortfall, the firm expects credit costs will revert lower in Q1 and remains optimistic on Farmers' prospects for profitability improvement towards peer levels as it prepares to close on its acquisition of Middlefield Banc (MBCN).
Piper Sandler
Adam Kroll
Neutral
initiated
$14
2025-11-21
Reason
Piper Sandler
Adam Kroll
Price Target
$14
2025-11-21
initiated
Neutral
Reason
Piper Sandler analyst Adam Kroll assumed coverage of Farmers National Banc (FMNB) with a Neutral rating and $14 price target. The firm believes the company is well positioned to gain market share within Middlefield Banc's (MBCN) markets. However, Piper thinks Farmers National's improving profitability outlook is largely reflected in the stock's current valuation.
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