Should I Buy FMC? FMC 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy FMC Corp (FMC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

14.760

1 Day change

7.97%

52 Week Range

44.780

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: the stock is stretched short-term (RSI_6 ~81 overbought) and sitting near/above key resistance (R1 16.795; R2 17.237) after a sharp regular-session pop.
Earnings catalyst is immediate (Q4 after-hours) while expectations have been cut heavily (multiple downward revisions), creating high gap-risk that doesn’t favor an impatient “buy now” approach.
Upside looks limited versus clustered Street targets (~$13–$21, many at $14–$17) with the stock around ~$17.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0671) and expanding, confirming the latest bounce.
Overbought: RSI_6 at 81.417 signals an overheated move and higher odds of near-term pullback.
Trend/structure: moving averages are converging (indecision/transition), consistent with a sharp rebound inside a broader unstable trend.
Key levels: Pivot 16.081. Support S1 15.367 (then S2 14.925). Resistance R1 16.795 and R2 17.237 (price is pressing this zone).
Pattern-based forward odds (given): ~50% chance of -1.38% next day; +0.89% next week; +6.27% next month (not strong enough to justify buying into an overbought, event-risk window).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/skew: Put/Call ratios are very call-heavy (OI PCR 0.51; Volume PCR 0.1) → bullish/speculative positioning into the event.
Volatility: 30D IV ~95.98 vs historical vol ~28.41; IV percentile ~98.8 → options are pricing an exceptionally large move (typical pre-earnings), increasing the chance of a sharp post-event repricing.
Activity: today’s option volume is ~278% of 30-day average, consistent with event-driven trading rather than steady accumulation.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Near-term catalyst: Q4 earnings release after-hours (can trigger a sharp upside gap if results/guide surprise positively).
- Track record: FMC has beaten EPS estimates ~88% of the time and revenue ~63% over the past two years (historically capable of surprises).
- Options positioning is aggressively bullish (call-dominant), which can support a squeeze if numbers/guide beat expectations.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Estimate momentum is negative: last 3 months show 10 downward EPS revisions and 9 downward revenue revisions → weak setup heading into earnings.
- Expected Q4 YoY declines: EPS est. ~1.20 (-33% YoY) and revenue est. ~$1.15B (-5.7% YoY) → fundamental headwinds persist.
- Post-move technical risk: RSI overbought and price near resistance increases downside probability if earnings are merely “in-line” or guidance disappoints.
- Very high implied volatility can lead to post-earnings “vol crush” and abrupt price swings.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
2025/Q3 revenue: $542.2M, down -49.11% YoY (severe contraction).
2025/Q3 net income: -$566.5M (material loss), down -974.23% YoY.
2025/Q3 EPS: -4.52, down -969.23% YoY.
2025/Q3 gross margin: 23.77%, down -34.46% YoY → profitability deterioration.
Trading/ownership tone: hedge funds and insiders are both listed as Neutral (no strong accumulation signal).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: predominantly price-target cuts and cautious ratings (Neutral/Sector Perform), with one Outperform still present but trimmed.
Key changes: JPMorgan cut PT to $14 from $43 (Neutral); Barclays downgraded to Underweight with $13 PT; RBC cut to $16 (Sector Perform); BofA stays Neutral with $17; Citi moved $14→$16 but remains Neutral; Mizuho maintains Outperform but reduced PT ($30→$24→$21).
Wall St pros: potential company-specific improvement narrative into 2026; possible macro catalysts (PMI/rate cuts/capacity rationalization themes).
Wall St cons: tough near-to-medium-term outlook, limited growth visibility, and repeated estimate/target reductions; Street PT cluster implies limited upside at current price.
Politicians/congress: no recent congress trading data available (no reported political buys/sells to lean on).

14 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast FMC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FMC is 19.08 USD with a low forecast of 13 USD and a high forecast of 28 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

10 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

Current: 13.670

Low

Averages

19.08

High

Current: 13.670

Low

Averages

19.08

High

UBS

Neutral

downgrade

$15 -> $14

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

UBS

Price Target

$15 -> $14

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

UBS lowered the firm's price target on FMC to $14 from $15 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

RBC Capital

Sector Perform

downgrade

$16 -> $14

2026-02-06

New

Reason

RBC Capital

Price Target

$16 -> $14

2026-02-06

New

downgrade

Sector Perform

Reason

RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on FMC to $14 from $16 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares after its Q4 results and below-consensus guide. The firm remains cautious on FMC given the scale of structural market share loss is unclear, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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FMC Should I Buy

FMC Should I Buy

Should You Buy FMC Corp (FMC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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