Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is stretched short-term (RSI elevated) and sitting just under/at near-term resistance (~44.33), while pattern stats imply higher odds of a small next-day pullback.
Trend is bullish (MA stack + positive MACD), but without a proprietary Intellectia “strong buy” trigger today, the risk/reward at ~44.28 looks more “chase-y” than attractive.
Best near-term setup would be a pullback toward the pivot/support zone (~42.8) rather than buying into resistance.
Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages aligned (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), confirming an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.203) and expanding, supporting continuation.
Overbought/extension risk: RSI_6 at 74.13 suggests the stock is extended short-term (prone to cooling/pullback even within an uptrend).
Levels: Pivot support ~42.8; near-term resistance R1 ~44.33 (price ~44.28 is essentially at this zone), next resistance R2 ~45.27.
Quant/pattern note: Similar-pattern projection shows ~60% chance of -1.19% next day, but still positive bias over 1 week (+1.83%) and 1 month (+4.92%).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Open interest put/call ratio 0.02 indicates extremely call-heavy positioning (bullish sentiment), but the absolute open interest is very small (calls OI 104 vs puts OI 2).
Activity: Today’s options volume is minimal (total volume 1; put volume 0), so sentiment signal is weak/low-confidence despite the call skew.
Volatility: IV (30d) ~45.16 vs historical vol ~29.72 suggests options are pricing higher-than-realized movement; IV rank/percentile is moderate-to-low (IV rank 14.11, IV percentile 36.25), and IV has been falling vs 5–10d averages (65–70) -> cooling risk premium.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
report showed solid underlying growth and momentum into 2026 per analyst commentary.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Positioning/flows: Hedge funds are selling aggressively (selling amount up ~6270.83% over the last quarter), a notable sentiment/flow headwind.
Technical entry quality: Short-term RSI is elevated and price is pressing into R1 resistance (~44.33), increasing odds of a near-term fade.
Options signal quality: Call-skew exists, but the options market is thin (very low volume/open interest overall), reducing reliability.
Politician/influential trading: No supporting signal here (no recent congress trading data available).
Takeaway: Financial trend is positive (earnings growing faster than revenue), supporting the longer-term bullish thesis.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent actions: Keefe Bruyette raised PT to $46 from $44 (Market Perform). DA Davidson raised PT to $46 from $45 (Neutral).
Trend: Price targets are drifting upward, but ratings remain neutral/market-perform (not a high-conviction “buy” stance).
Wall Street pros: Expected steady loan growth, NIM improvement, stable credit, and stronger EPS growth into 2026–2027.
Wall Street cons: Q4 was described as a bit light vs expectations (with one-time items), and the overall stance remains cautious/neutral despite improved targets.
Insider/politician lens: Insiders are neutral (no significant recent trend); no congress trading data available in the last 90 days.
Wall Street analysts forecast FMBH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FMBH is 48 USD with a low forecast of 48 USD and a high forecast of 48 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FMBH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FMBH is 48 USD with a low forecast of 48 USD and a high forecast of 48 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 44.000
Low
48
Averages
48
High
48
Current: 44.000
Low
48
Averages
48
High
48
Keefe Bruyette
Market Perform
maintain
$44 -> $46
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$44 -> $46
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
maintain
Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on First Mid Bancshares to $46 from $44 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.
DA Davidson
Neutral
maintain
$45 -> $46
2026-02-02
Reason
DA Davidson
Price Target
$45 -> $46
2026-02-02
maintain
Neutral
Reason
DA Davidson raised the firm's price target on First Mid Bancshares to $46 from $45 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company's Q4 was a bit light of expectations, but there were several one time items that masked good momentum into 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Steady loan growth, net interest margin improvement and stable credit are expected to deliver strong EPS growth in 2026 and 2027, the firm added.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for FMBH
