Should I Buy FLY? FLY 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Firefly Aerospace Inc (FLY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

23.880

1 Day change

6.63%

52 Week Range

73.800

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price is in a confirmed downtrend and still below key resistance (pivot ~27.04).
Best near-term setup is a bounce trade only if support holds (~23.34); otherwise downside risk remains toward ~21.05.
Options sentiment is mildly bullish (puts < calls), but implied volatility is extremely elevated, suggesting the market is pricing a big move rather than a clean directional edge.
Upcoming catalysts (Flight 7 timing + QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26) can change the narrative, but today’s tape/technicals don’t support chasing entries.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), consistent with a sustained downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.86) and only “less bearish” (contracting), which typically signals weakening downside momentum but not a confirmed reversal.
RSI: RSI(6) ~39.7 (neutral-to-weak), showing sellers still have control without being deeply oversold.
Levels: Current ~24.3–24.4 is just above Support S1 ~23.34 (key near-term line). If it breaks, next support S2 ~21.05. Upside hurdles: Pivot ~27.04 then R1 ~30.73.
Pattern-based odds (similar candlesticks): modest upside bias (+0.86% next day, +0.95% next week, +3.58% next month), but this conflicts with the still-bearish trend structure.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put-call ratios below 1 (OI PCR 0.59; Volume PCR 0.49) indicate call-skewed positioning (mildly bullish sentiment).
Activity: Today’s options volume 3,371 vs 30D average is very low (today vs avg ~40%), but open interest is elevated (today OI 96,042; ~131% vs 30D avg), suggesting positioning is already built.
Volatility: Implied vol (30D) ~136% with IV percentile ~99 and IV rank ~90.7—market is pricing very large moves (often around catalysts), which can reduce the attractiveness of outright long premium.
Takeaway: Options are leaning bullish, but the extreme IV points to “event pricing” rather than clean confidence in immediate upside direction.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Event-driven upside optionality from major defense spending themes (e.g., “Golden Dome” narrative lifting sector sentiment).
- Flight 7 launch focus (per Street commentary) could be a sentiment inflection if execution is clean.
- Some Wall Street targets have been raised recently (GS to $32; MS to $33), implying improving valuation support if operational milestones land.
- Revenue growth remains strong (2025/Q3 revenue +37.6% YoY).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical downtrend remains intact; recent regular-session move was -2.99%, and price is still below the pivot/resistance zone (~27).
- Execution/track-record overhang: multiple analyst notes reference prior Alpha mishaps and the need to “re-establish footing.”
- Profitability pressure: gross margin down sharply YoY and losses widened (see financials).
- High implied volatility suggests the market expects a big move; if catalysts disappoint, downside can accelerate toward lower supports (~23.34 then ~21.05).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $30.78M, up +37.59% YoY (strong top-line growth).
Profitability: Net income -$140.36M (loss widened materially YoY), and EPS -0.98 (more negative YoY), indicating rising costs/investment burden.
Margins: Gross margin 27.58%, down -20.61% YoY, showing deteriorating unit economics near-term.
Bottom line: growth is real, but the quarter shows worsening losses and margin compression—fundamentals don’t yet support a “must-buy now” call without an execution catalyst.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: price targets have been moving up again into early 2026 (Goldman to $32 from $29; Morgan Stanley to $33 from $27), but ratings remain mostly Neutral/Equal Weight—suggesting “improving outlook, but not enough conviction to pound the table.”
Bull case (Wall St pros): Buy-rated firms cite diversified launch/spacecraft exposure, secular space/defense tailwinds (incl. Golden Dome), backlog/opportunity set, and potential narrative shift if Flight 7 is successful.
Bear case (Wall St cons): repeated emphasis on launch execution risk, prior mishaps, slower ramp/cadence uncertainty, and valuation discount vs better-established peers until reliability improves.
Notable: JPM cut PT sharply earlier (to $28 from $55) despite Overweight, highlighting how quickly sentiment changes on execution cadence.

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast FLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FLY is 34.83 USD with a low forecast of 27 USD and a high forecast of 65 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 22.395

Low

Averages

34.83

High

Current: 22.395

Low

Averages

34.83

High

Goldman Sachs

Neutral

maintain

$29 -> $32

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Price Target

$29 -> $32

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on FireFly Aerospace to $32 from $29 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm's Q4 Aerospace & Defense preview highlights favorable aerospace OE conditions, with supply below demand, while aftermarket growth outpaces global ASMs with strong pricing supporting margins, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Business jet demand remains solid amid tight supply, defense hardware growth is improving though margins face risk from shifting contracts, defense tech momentum emphasizes faster, commercial-style providers, and federal IT obligations continue under pressure, the firm says.

Morgan Stanley

Kristine Liwag

Equal Weight

maintain

$27 -> $33

2026-01-16

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Kristine Liwag

Price Target

$27 -> $33

2026-01-16

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley analyst Kristine Liwag raised the firm's price target on FireFly Aerospace to $33 from $27 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. In the Launch market of the Space Tech sector, investors are watching the extent to which lift providers can commercialize new offerings and meaningfully increase cadence this year, says the analyst, who raised the firm's target for FireFly as the firm revisits its valuation multiple ahead of Flight 7's launch.

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FLY Should I Buy

FLY Should I Buy

Should You Buy Firefly Aerospace Inc (FLY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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