Not a good buy right now: the stock just jumped ~5% (regular session) and is trading near resistance (R2 ~11.914) with RSI(6) ~76 (stretched/overbought), which is a poor entry for an impatient buyer.
No edge from Intellectia signals today (no AI Stock Picker or SwingMax), so there isn’t a high-conviction timing trigger to chase this move.
Near-term catalyst risk is elevated with QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-09 (after hours); options are pricing big moves (very high IV percentile), which increases the odds of whipsaw.
If already holding, the trend/momentum is improving; but for a new buy, the setup favors waiting for either a pullback toward ~11.34 pivot/support or a clean break/hold above ~11.91—neither is confirmed yet.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram +0.0732 and expanding → bullish momentum improving.
Overbought condition: RSI_6 = 76.17 → stretched after the sharp up day; risk of near-term mean reversion.
Moving averages: converging → trend is improving but not a mature uptrend confirmation.
Pattern-based odds (similar candlesticks): model suggests modest upside bias (about +1.5% next week / +2.43% next month), but that’s not strong enough to justify chasing into resistance.
Positioning/Sentiment: OI Put/Call = 0.81 → slightly call-leaning (mildly bullish).
Flow today: Volume Put/Call = 0.03 with calls 1466 vs puts 49 → aggressively call-skewed trading (bullish speculation).
Volatility: IV 30d ~49.56 vs HV ~37.24 and IV percentile 93.23 → options are expensive and pricing event risk; market expects larger-than-usual moves.
Activity surge: today’s option volume is ~183% of 30D average → heightened attention into the upcoming earnings window.
Takeaway: sentiment looks bullish, but the very high IV also signals elevated event-driven risk around earnings.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
Defensive consumer staples exposure can attract buyers when macro uncertainty rises.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
~76 and price sitting just below R2 ~11.914 (near-term ceiling).
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $1.226B, +3.02% YoY → top-line still growing modestly.
Profitability: Net income $39.5M, -39.16% YoY and EPS $0.19, -38.71% YoY → earnings power weakened meaningfully.
Margins: Gross margin 44.68, -4.16% YoY → margin compression is the key negative trend.
Takeaway: growth exists, but it’s being offset by weakening margins/earnings—this limits upside conviction.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent Street trend: multiple firms cut price targets and maintained neutral stances after Q3.
2025-11-13 DA Davidson: Neutral, PT $12 down from $15; cited softening packaged bakery trends and structural category pressure.
2025-11-13 Truist: Hold, PT $10 down from $15; noted mixed Q3, weaker sales/margin but EPS helped by lower expenses; highlighted historical inconsistency.
2025-11-10 Deutsche Bank: Hold, PT $13 down from $15.
Wall Street pros: stable staple demand, cost/actions can support EPS.
Wall Street cons: structurally pressured categories, inconsistent execution, and margin headwinds—overall neutral-to-cautious positioning.
Wall Street analysts forecast FLO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FLO is 12.5 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 13 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FLO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FLO is 12.5 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 13 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 11.910
Low
12
Averages
12.5
High
13
Current: 11.910
Low
12
Averages
12.5
High
13
DA Davidson
Neutral
downgrade
$15 -> $12
AI Analysis
2025-11-13
Reason
DA Davidson
Price Target
$15 -> $12
AI Analysis
2025-11-13
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
DA Davidson lowered the firm's price target on Flowers Foods to $12 from $15 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares after its Q3 results and guidance that reflected softening packaged bakery trends. The company's asset base and route to market means it's tethered to what may prove structurally pressured categories, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Truist
Hold
downgrade
$15 -> $10
2025-11-13
Reason
Truist
Price Target
$15 -> $10
2025-11-13
downgrade
Hold
Reason
Truist lowered the firm's price target on Flowers Foods to $10 from $15 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares after its "mixed" Q3 results and narrowed guidance. The worse-than-expected sales and lower gross margin were more than offset by lower SD&A expense to drive the EPS beat, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Despite several favorable tailwinds, the company has historically been inconsistent with expectations, the firm added.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for FLO
