Not a good buy right now: the stock just sold off sharply (regular -10.39%, post -9.18%) and is trading below/near key support after an earnings disappointment (QDEC 2025 EPS -0.34 vs -0.20 est).
Technicals are mixed: longer-term trend (MA stack) is still bullish, but the near-term price action is weak and suggests unstable footing.
Options positioning is call-leaning (bullish skew), but implied volatility is extremely elevated—sentiment is speculative and pricing in big moves.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: no edge today (no AI Stock Picker, no SwingMax), so there’s no high-conviction timing signal to justify chasing the dip for an impatient buyer.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish moving average structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests the broader trend has been up, but the latest session shows a major momentum break.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.26) but contracting, implying upside momentum is fading.
RSI: RSI_6 at 48.84 (neutral) — no oversold washout signal to indicate a high-probability snap-back entry.
Levels: Pivot 29.577; key support S1 26.594 (price ~26.4 post-market is below S1), next support S2 24.752. Resistance levels: R1 32.56, R2 34.403. Breaking below S1 increases risk of a continuation drop toward S2.
Pattern-based outlook (similar candlesticks): near-term drift slightly negative (next week -0.76%), but a more constructive 1-month setup (+6.44%)—suggesting the bounce may be better after stabilization, not immediately.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment/skew: Put-call ratios are < 1 on both open interest (0.63) and volume (0.73), indicating call-leaning positioning (bullish bias).
Volatility: 30D IV 137.51% vs historical volatility 78.86% (IV is very rich); IV percentile 87.65 shows options are expensive and the market expects large swings.
Activity: Options volume (6,720) is ~109.6% of 30D average — heightened interest after the move.
Takeaway: Options suggest bullish speculation, but the extremely high IV often appears around event-driven moves (like earnings) and can coincide with unstable price discovery rather than a clean buy signal.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
indicates some operational progress despite revenue pressure.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
post-market, raising odds of follow-through selling toward ~24.75 (S2).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $1.0419B, down -15.17% YoY (clear top-line contraction).
Net income: $17.95M, down -62.49% YoY (profitability compressed materially).
EPS: $0.14, up +7.69% YoY (improvement in per-share terms despite weaker net income, likely helped by other items/share count effects).
Gross margin: 13.39%, up +6.35% YoY (a bright spot—margin expansion suggests improving mix/pricing/execution, but not enough to offset revenue decline this quarter).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: price targets have mostly been raised into late 2025 and Jan 2026, reflecting stronger enthusiasm around data-center-driven storage demand.
Bulls (pro): Goldman maintains Buy and lifted PT (up to $30), emphasizing leadership in storage and growth inflection tied to data centers.
Neutrals/cautious (con): Several firms keep Neutral/Equal Weight/Sector Perform despite higher PTs (Roth, BofA, UBS, Citi, Morgan Stanley, RBC), implying upside is viewed as more balanced vs valuation/execution risk.
Bears/valuation concerns: Mizuho downgraded to Underperform citing “premature enthusiasm” and premium valuation; Johnson Rice downgraded to Hold.
Wall Street net view: improving long-term demand narrative, but near-term execution/supply constraints and valuation risk keep many pros from turning decisively bullish at current levels.
Wall Street analysts forecast FLNC stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FLNC is 16.25 USD with a low forecast of 8 USD and a high forecast of 26 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FLNC stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FLNC is 16.25 USD with a low forecast of 8 USD and a high forecast of 26 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
12 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 18.950
Low
8
Averages
16.25
High
26
Current: 18.950
Low
8
Averages
16.25
High
26
Mizuho
Underperform
downgrade
$15 -> $13
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Mizuho
Price Target
$15 -> $13
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
downgrade
Underperform
Reason
Mizuho lowered the firm's price target on Fluence Energy to $13 from $15 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. The firm cites the company's higher than expected cash burn in Q1 for the target cut.
Susquehanna
Charles Minervino
Positive
downgrade
$30 -> $27
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Susquehanna
Charles Minervino
Price Target
$30 -> $27
2026-02-06
New
downgrade
Positive
Reason
Susquehanna analyst Charles Minervino lowered the firm's price target on Fluence Energy to $27 from $30 and keeps a Positive rating on the shares. The firm said the company reported 1Q results, beating revenue estimates while EBITDA was below expectations as margins compressed. Order intake was $750M in 1Q, bringing the backlog to a record $5.5B, while the pipeline grew 30% with a mix shift toward the U.S. Conversations with data center customers are progressing, and the company expects to announce orders beginning in 2H of the year.
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