Should I Buy FIVE? FIVE 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Five Below Inc (FIVE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

202.610

1 Day change

4.39%

52 Week Range

207.110

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now: fundamentals and analyst momentum are strong while price is sitting right on the key pivot (~192.5), offering a reasonable entry without waiting.
Near-term tape is mixed (neutral RSI, MACD still negative), but improving earnings power + multiple re-rating narrative under new leadership supports upside.
Options positioning is put-heavy (defensive/bearish short-term), which can cap immediate upside, but also sets up for a squeeze if price reclaims ~200.

Technical Analysis

Price is essentially at the pivot (192.504), suggesting an inflection zone rather than an extended overbought level.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.677) but contracting, implying bearish momentum is fading (early stabilization).
RSI(6) ~50.34 (neutral), consistent with consolidation rather than a breakdown.
Moving averages are converging, typically signaling a transition phase before the next directional move.
Levels: Support S1 ~185.17 then S2 ~180.65; Resistance R1 ~199.84 then R2 ~204.36. A move back above ~200 would be a bullish confirmation.
Pattern-based projection: modest downside bias next day/week, but positive 1-month expectation (+4.75%), aligning with a buy-for-the-next-weeks stance.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment is bearish/defensive: Put OI exceeds calls (OI PCR 1.87) and put volume dominates (vol PCR 2.37).
Activity spike: today’s option volume is ~8.13x the 30-day average, showing heightened event/positioning interest.
Volatility: 30D IV ~49.06 vs historical vol ~27.43 (options pricing in large moves); IV rank is low (8.1) but IV is still elevated in absolute terms.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Major catalyst: BofA double-upgrade to Buy with a large target raise to $233, explicitly citing improving execution under new CEO/CFO/merchant leadership.
- Multiple bullish targets/re-affirmations recently (DB $242 Buy; Truist upgrade to Buy $216; Wells Fargo Overweight $200; JPM Overweight $197), reinforcing a multi-firm re-rating narrative.
- Macro/event tailwind: news flow indicates tariff changes/reductions may benefit margins for import-sensitive retailers like Five Below.
- Strong latest reported growth (revenue +23% YoY) supports the idea that initiatives are working and traffic/transactions can improve.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Legal overhang: Halper Sadeh LLC investigation headlines can pressure sentiment short-term even if fundamentals are intact.
- Options market is positioned cautiously (put-heavy), suggesting traders are hedging near-term downside or expecting volatility.
- Technical picture is not fully bullish yet (MACD still below zero; resistance clustered around ~200).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2026/Q3.
Revenue: $1.038B, +23.06% YoY (strong top-line acceleration).
Profitability inflection: Net income $36.5M, +2063.90% YoY.
EPS: $0.66, +2100.00% YoY (major earnings rebound).
Gross margin: 29.14%, +14.50% YoY, indicating improved mix/pricing and/or cost control—supports the bull case for sustained multiple expansion.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend is clearly improving: a fresh, high-impact upgrade (BofA to Buy) with an aggressive target raise ($158 -> $233) is a strong positive signal.
Additional bullish coverage: Deutsche Bank resumed at Buy with $242; Truist upgraded to Buy with $216.
Some caution remains: Barclays stays Equal Weight ($193), Bernstein Market Perform ($179), Morgan Stanley Equal Weight ($190) — the Street isn’t unanimously bullish, but the direction of target revisions has been upward.
Wall Street pros view: execution/leadership changes, marketing initiatives, and higher price-point mix can drive comps and margin upside.
Wall Street cons view: tougher comparisons ahead and tariff/macro uncertainty are recurring hesitations, though recent tariff-related news flow is turning more favorable.

19 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast FIVE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FIVE is 193.47 USD with a low forecast of 132 USD and a high forecast of 242 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

11 Buy

7 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 194.090

Low

132

Averages

193.47

High

242

Current: 194.090

Low

132

Averages

193.47

High

242

BofA

Underperform -> Buy

upgrade

$158 -> $233

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$158 -> $233

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

upgrade

Underperform -> Buy

Reason

BofA upgraded Five Below to Buy from Underperform with a price target of $233, up from $158.

BofA

Underperform

Buy

upgrade

$158 -> $233

2026-02-04

New

Reason

BofA

Price Target

$158 -> $233

2026-02-04

New

upgrade

Underperform

Buy

Reason

As previously reported, BofA upgraded Five Below to Buy from Underperform with a price target of $233, up from $158. The firm believes shares will return to a higher P/E multiple as results continue to improve under the new leadership of CEO Winnie Park, CFO Dan Sullivan and Chief Merchant Michelle Israel, the analyst tells investors. Five Below's new initiatives in marketing should drive traffic/transactions and mix shift to higher price points that could result in comps upside for years, the analyst added.

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FIVE Should I Buy

FIVE Should I Buy

Should You Buy Five Below Inc (FIVE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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