Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price is extended (RSI_6 ~81.7 overbought) and there are no Intellectia buy signals.
Momentum is still bullish (MACD expanding; SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but near-term upside looks limited versus nearby resistance (R1 19.52 / R2 19.82) while downside risk increases on any pullback.
Street sentiment has softened (JPM downgrade to Underweight; Goldman stays Sell), creating a tougher near-term setup despite some bullish targets (KBW/UBS).
Hedge funds are accumulating (+244.72% QoQ), which is supportive, but not enough to override the overbought technicals and mixed analyst stance.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
No signal on given stock today.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), signaling an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.081 and expanding → bullish momentum persists.
Overbought: RSI_6 at 81.687 → stretched/overbought; short-term pullback risk is elevated.
Levels: Pivot 19.041 (near-term line in the sand). Resistance at 19.52 (R1) then 19.817 (R2). Support at 18.562 (S1) then 18.265 (S2).
Pattern-based outlook: Similar-pattern projection suggests mild negative drift (-0.57% next day, -1.45% next week, -4.06% next month), arguing against chasing at current levels.
Positive Catalysts
could re-rate shares if underwriting remains strong.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical setup is crowded: RSI overbought while price sits close to resistance (R1/R2), increasing risk of a near-term fade.
Analyst sentiment pressure: JPMorgan downgraded to Underweight; Goldman maintains Sell, both flagging cycle softening/property exposure and limited upside from structure.
Industry backdrop: Multiple analysts note the P&C cycle is softening/competition rising, which can compress pricing and margins.
No supportive near-term news flow (no news in the past week) to justify chasing strength.
Congress trading: No recent congress trading data available (no political-flow confirmation).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $646.9M, down 4.97% YoY (top-line contraction).
Net Income: $130.5M, up 29.72% YoY (profit growth despite lower revenue).
EPS: $1.24, up 40.91% YoY (strong bottom-line leverage).
Takeaway: Operational profitability improved meaningfully, but revenue decline suggests growth is not broad-based heading into a potentially softer pricing environment.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Ratings/targets are mixed but skewed more cautious in early Jan 2026.
Bearish/negative: JPMorgan downgraded to Underweight with PT $21 (cites above-average property exposure and structural limits). Goldman reiterates Sell and trimmed PT to $17.50 (from $18) on 2026-01-16; also flags P&C cycle softening.
Neutral: Evercore In Line with PT raised to $21 (from $20), acknowledging a challenging cyclical setup but stock-picker opportunities.
Bullish: KBW Outperform (PT $24) and UBS Buy (PT $24) argue valuation undervalues book value growth/underwriting and buybacks.
Wall Street pros/cons view: Pros—profitability/book value growth potential and capital return angle. Cons—cycle softening, property exposure, and structural constraints limit upside; overall this is not an ideal “buy right now” setup given the current overbought tape.
Wall Street analysts forecast FIHL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FIHL is 21.17 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FIHL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FIHL is 21.17 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
2 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 19.530
Low
18
Averages
21.17
High
24
Current: 19.530
Low
18
Averages
21.17
High
24
Goldman Sachs
Sell
downgrade
$18
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$18
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
downgrade
Sell
Reason
Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Fidelis Insurance to $17.50 from $18 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. The firm has modestly increased assumptions for favorable Reinsurance in 2026 and in 2027 while noting that Fidelis has likely built a solid short-tail reserve position in Reinsurance during a the second half period with limited catastrophe losses, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Evercore ISI
In Line
maintain
$20 -> $21
2026-01-07
Reason
Evercore ISI
Price Target
$20 -> $21
2026-01-07
maintain
In Line
Reason
Evercore ISI raised the firm's price target on Fidelis Insurance to $21 from $20 and keeps an In Line rating on the shares. With a tough cyclical backdrop, 2026 is "shaping up to be a challenging year for the P&C insurance sector," but this presents "a stock pickers market with opportunities for discerning investors," the analyst says in a year-ahead outlook note for the group.
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