Should I Buy FICO? FICO 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

1391.000

1 Day change

2.48%

52 Week Range

2217.600

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: price is in a confirmed bearish trend (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and still below the key pivot (~1451), so odds favor choppy/weak price action before a durable reversal.
Fundamentals and Wall Street targets are supportive longer-term, but the current tape is still risk-off for immediate entry; better risk/reward comes only after reclaiming ~1451 and holding.
Near-term setup is more consistent with a watch/hold than an aggressive buy; downside is defined toward ~1337 support if weakness resumes.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) indicates a sustained downtrend despite the strong regular-session pop (+4.35%).
Momentum: MACD histogram -14.957 (below 0) but negatively contracting → selling pressure may be easing, yet trend hasn’t flipped.
RSI(6): 29.746 → near-oversold/washed out, which can support a short bounce, but oversold can persist in downtrends.
Levels: Price ~1386.9 is below Pivot 1451.6 (still bearish). Key support S1 ~1336.7 then S2 ~1265.7; resistance R1 ~1566.4.
Pattern-based projection (similar candles): ~80% chance of -0.35% next day, +1.29% next week, +5.01% next month → modest upward drift, but not a strong immediate edge.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: OI put/call 0.9 = fairly balanced (not panic-hedged), slightly call-leaning.
Flow: Volume put/call 0.48 = call-heavy on the day → bullish/relief-rally sentiment.
Volatility: 30D IV 46.86 vs HV 38.24 (IV > HV) and IV percentile ~70 → options priced rich; market expects larger moves.
Activity: Today volume 462 is ~46.8% of 30D average, but open interest today vs avg 118% → positioning is present, yet today’s trading urgency isn’t extreme.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Strong latest quarter: FY2026 Q1 revenue +16.36% YoY with very high gross margin (~83%), reinforcing quality of business.
- Product/competitive positioning: Multiple Gartner recognitions (Leader / strong ranking) support enterprise credibility and adoption momentum.
- Macro adjacency: Mortgage-related data points (e.g., peer commentary) suggest mortgage activity improvement, which can support scoring volumes/pricing narratives.
- Street view remains broadly constructive: multiple Buy/Outperform ratings with targets well above current price.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Price action still in a downtrend (bearish MA stack) and below pivot resistance; immediate upside follow-through is not confirmed.
- Regulatory overhang remains a recurring theme in analyst notes (uncertainty can cap multiples/rallies).
- Elevated IV (and IV > HV) implies the market is charging up for movement; if the stock stalls, option-implied expectations can work against bullish positioning.
- No proprietary Intellectia trigger today (no AI Stock Picker / no SwingMax), so there’s no model-backed “must-buy-now” timing edge.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter (FY2026/Q1): Revenue $511.96M (+16.36% YoY) → solid top-line momentum.
Profitability: Net income $158.37M (+3.83% YoY) with gross margin 82.96% (up ~3.51%) → margins remain exceptional.
EPS: $6.61 (+7.65% YoY) → earnings growing, but slower than revenue (suggests some cost/investment or mix effects).
Trading/ownership signals: Hedge funds neutral, insiders neutral; no strong accumulation/distribution signal from these datapoints.
Politicians/Congress: No recent congress trading data available (no actionable signal).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Targets remain high overall, but there’s been some trimming (e.g., Goldman cut PT to $1,777 from $2,070 while maintaining Buy), alongside reiterations/raises elsewhere (Jefferies reiterated Buy with $2,200; Clear Street modestly raised).
Wall Street pros: Strong quarter execution, pricing power/score adoption tailwinds, platform growth and bookings momentum, and expectations for 20%+ EPS growth.
Wall Street cons: Ongoing regulatory uncertainty and debate around competitive/market structure risk (often cited as the main overhang).
Net: Analyst stance is mostly bullish, but the market’s current technical posture is not confirming an immediate low-risk entry.

11 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast FICO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FICO is 2070 USD with a low forecast of 1700 USD and a high forecast of 2400 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

8 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 1357.340

Low

1700

Averages

2070

High

2400

Current: 1357.340

Low

1700

Averages

2070

High

2400

Goldman Sachs

George Tong

Buy

downgrade

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

Reason

Goldman Sachs

George Tong

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Goldman Sachs analyst George Tong lowered the firm's price target on FICO to $1,777 from $2,070 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. FICO delivered strong Q1 results with revenue, margins, and EPS beating expectations and reaffirmed full-year guidance, driven by 60% year over year mortgage origination revenue growth from pricing, the analyst tells investors in a research note. With further pricing increases coming in CY26, broader adoption of FICO 10T, and continued market share leadership, the company is positioned for 20%+ EPS growth and potential upside to estimates and valuation, Goldman argues.

Jefferies

Buy

maintain

$2,200

2026-02-02

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

$2,200

2026-02-02

maintain

Buy

Reason

Jefferies reiterated a Buy rating and $2,200 price target on FICO, saying that while regulatory concerns continue, underlying fundamentals are showing strong improvement. On Scores, volumes continue to be much better than expected, and for Software, Platform saw meaningful growth and annual contract value bookings reached a new record, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm added that FY26 guidance was reiterated, which was expected, even as management again signaled it as highly conservative.

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FICO Should I Buy

FICO Should I Buy

Should You Buy Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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