Should I Buy FHB? FHB 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy First Hawaiian Inc (FHB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

27.230

1 Day change

1.95%

52 Week Range

28.350

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: upside looks capped near $28–$29 (street targets) while near-term pattern/quant odds skew slightly negative.
Price is sitting right on the pivot (~27.15); risk/reward is unfavorable unless it can reclaim and hold above ~$28.04 (R1).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: No signal on given stock today (no AI Stock Picker edge; no SwingMax entry).
No notable hedge fund/insider/congress activity signals to lean on (all neutral / none reported).

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0868) though contracting, implying bearish momentum is fading but not flipped bullish.
RSI(6) ~55: neutral—no oversold “snapback” setup.
Moving averages: converging—typically a consolidation/indecision regime rather than a clean uptrend.
Levels: Pivot 27.145 (current price ~27.12 is essentially at pivot). Support S1 26.25 then S2 25.70; Resistance R1 28.04 then R2 28.59.
Pattern-based odds provided: ~70% chance of only ~+0.11% next day, but -1.93% next week and -4.35% next month—suggesting downside drift risk after the post-earnings pop.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Put/Call open-interest ratio 0.54 (more calls than puts) = mildly bullish skew.
Activity: option volume is effectively zero today (volume signals are not informative right now).
Volatility: IV30 ~61.4 vs historical vol ~27.8 (options are priced rich vs realized), but IV percentile/rank are relatively low (27% / 21%), implying IV has come down from recent highs.
Open interest: today’s OI (266) is elevated vs 30D average (~139%), suggesting some positioning exists even though today’s trading volume is quiet.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Q4 2025 earnings beat: EPS $0.56 topped expectations; revenue +20% YoY (news summary).
- Strong Q4 2025 financial growth: revenue +25.35% YoY, net income +33.21% YoY, EPS +36.59% YoY.
- Dividend maintained at $0.26/quarter (~3.77% forward yield), supportive for income-focused holders.
- Sector tailwinds cited by multiple analysts (repricing tailwinds, potential rate cuts, loan growth).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Valuation/premium concern: JPMorgan keeps Underweight citing a “steep premium” and limited room for outperformance.
- Analyst stance remains mostly neutral-to-negative overall (Hold/Neutral/Underweight/Sell), implying limited incremental demand from upgrades.
- Near-term technicals are not decisively bullish (MACD still below zero; MAs converging) and pattern-based outlook suggests mild downside over 1 week to 1 month.
- No confirmed event-driven catalyst beyond the already-digested Q4 print (post-earnings risk of fade).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $207.4M, +25.35% YoY (accelerating top-line growth).
Net income: $69.93M, +33.21% YoY (profit growth outpacing revenue).
EPS: $0.56, +36.59% YoY (strong earnings leverage).
Takeaway: fundamentals are strong, but the market/analysts appear to price much of this in via the stock’s premium valuation narrative.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend (last few notes): price targets clustered tightly around $27–$29 with small revisions (some raises to $29; one cut to $27), signaling limited expected upside from current ~$27.1.
Ratings skew: JPMorgan Underweight; Goldman Sell; TD Cowen Hold; Piper Neutral; Barclays Equal Weight—overall a cautious/neutral Street stance.
Wall Street “pros”: strong deposit franchise in Hawaii, conservative credit profile, repricing tailwinds, healthy dividend.
Wall Street “cons”: premium valuation vs peers limits relative upside; stock may struggle to outperform without a fresh catalyst.

9 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast FHB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FHB is 27.56 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 29 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

6 Hold

3 Sell

Moderate Sell

Current: 26.710

Low

Averages

27.56

High

Current: 26.710

Low

Averages

27.56

High

JPMorgan

Underweight

maintain

$28 -> $29

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$28 -> $29

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

maintain

Underweight

Reason

JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on First Hawaiian to $29 from $28 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares post the Q4 report. The firm sees limited room for share outperformance given the stock's "steep premium."

TD Cowen

Janet Lee

Hold

maintain

$28 -> $29

2026-02-02

Reason

TD Cowen

Janet Lee

Price Target

$28 -> $29

2026-02-02

maintain

Hold

Reason

TD Cowen analyst Janet Lee raised the firm's price target on First Hawaiian to $29 from $28 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q4 results which beat expectation on better PTPP and lower provision.

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FHB Should I Buy

FHB Should I Buy

Should You Buy First Hawaiian Inc (FHB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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