Buy now for a rebound setup: Price (~19.03) is sitting just above near-term support (S1 18.972), while RSI is washed out and options positioning is heavily call-skewed—good conditions for a short-term bounce.
Trend is still bearish, so this is a tactical buy (reversion/swing) rather than a “trend-following” entry.
No recent hedge fund/insider/political activity signals to contradict the trade; fundamentals and the lone analyst view remain supportive into the next earnings window (2026-03-02 AH).
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: Bearish alignment (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) indicates the broader trend is still down.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.0661 and negatively expanding = downside momentum has been in control recently.
Mean-reversion signal: RSI_6 at 28.84 suggests the stock is getting oversold/washed-out, often a setup for a bounce—especially when price is near support.
Key levels: Pivot 19.392 (first upside “decision” level). Support 18.972 (S1) then 18.713 (S2). Resistance 19.813 (R1) then 20.072 (R2).
Pattern-based odds (provided): Near-term is mixed—higher chance of short-term dip (-4% next day probability cited) but improving odds into the next week/month (9.62% / 17.14% upside probabilities cited).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment: Extremely low put/call open-interest ratio (0.06) = options market is positioned bullishly (call-heavy).
Activity: Very light volume today (total volume 8, puts 0)—signal is sentiment-skewed but not backed by heavy trading.
Volatility: 30D IV 33.53% vs historical vol 23.05% (IV elevated vs realized), with IV rank 19.88 / IV percentile 35.06 (not extreme).
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
on 2026-03-02 After Hours can re-rate the stock if results/guide beat expectations.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical trend remains bearish (SMA stack + weakening MACD), so rebounds may face selling pressure into resistance (19.8–20.1).
No supportive news flow in the last week—no fresh narrative catalyst right now.
Option volume is tiny, so the bullish put/call skew may not reflect strong “fresh” conviction.
Trading trends: Hedge funds and insiders are reported neutral, offering no confirmatory accumulation signal.
Overall read: Growth and margins are moving in the right direction, supporting the case for a rebound/buy-on-weakness entry despite the current bearish tape.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Keefe Bruyette (2025-11-10): Kept Outperform; price target trimmed slightly to $21 from $21.50.
Wall Street pro view (pros): Outperform rating implies expectation of upside from current levels (~19), consistent with solid recent financial growth.
Wall Street con view (cons): The minor target cut suggests a bit more caution on near-term upside magnitude, aligning with the current bearish technical trend.
Wall Street analysts forecast FDUS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FDUS is 21.33 USD with a low forecast of 21 USD and a high forecast of 22 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FDUS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FDUS is 21.33 USD with a low forecast of 21 USD and a high forecast of 22 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 18.790
Low
21
Averages
21.33
High
22
Current: 18.790
Low
21
Averages
21.33
High
22
Keefe Bruyette
Outperform
to
Outperform
downgrade
$21
AI Analysis
2025-11-10
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$21
AI Analysis
2025-11-10
downgrade
Outperform
to
Outperform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette lowered the firm's price target on Fidus Investment to $21 from $21.50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.
Clear Street
Mickey Schleien
initiated
$21
2025-09-04
Reason
Clear Street
Mickey Schleien
Price Target
$21
2025-09-04
initiated
Reason
Clear Street analyst Mickey Schleien initiated coverage of Fidus Investment with a Buy rating and $21 price target. Fidus has \"a strong track record\" as a disciplined lower middle market lender, says the analyst, who views the company as positioned to achieve \"attractive income for investors with capital appreciation potential.\" Management emphasizes sponsor-backed companies in defensive sectors, which supports \"sustainable returns,\" the analyst added.
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