Should I Buy FCNCA? FCNCA 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy First Citizens BancShares Inc (Delaware) (FCNCA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

2160.990

1 Day change

1.79%

52 Week Range

2237.500

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price is back near $2,114 after a sharp earnings-driven drop, but fundamentals/news are still mixed and there are no Intellectia “strong-buy” signals.
Near-term setup looks more like a range trade than a clean uptrend (pivot ~2088; resistance ~2186). Buying here offers limited immediate upside versus nearby resistance.
Options positioning is bullish (put/call ratios low), but that alone doesn’t offset the negative earnings outlook and litigation headline risk.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-7.329) but contracting, suggesting bearish momentum is fading rather than a strong new uptrend starting.
RSI: RSI(6) at 58.18 = neutral-to-slightly-bullish, not overbought, but also not a “washed out” entry.
Moving averages: Converging MAs imply consolidation/chop rather than a directional breakout.
Key levels: Pivot 2088 (price ~2114 is just above); Resistance R1 2186 then R2 2247; Supports S1 1989 then S2 1929.
Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern model implies modest upside bias (next day +0.62%, next week +1.88%, next month +4.66%), consistent with a grind higher—not a high-conviction breakout.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: OI put/call 0.7 and volume put/call 0.2 skew bullish (more calls than puts), suggesting traders are positioned for upside/less downside hedging.
Activity: Today’s volume 30 with volume vs 30-day avg at 32.61% (not a spike); open interest today 1508 with 112.71% vs OI avg indicates positioning has been building.
Volatility: IV (27.16) below HV (32.34) and IV percentile 24.7 / IV rank 5.18 = options relatively cheap vs recent history (can reflect complacency or reduced event premium).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Loan growth noted by analysts; TBV and earnings directionally improved per Piper Sandler commentary.
- Sector backdrop some analysts cite: steepening yield curve, improving loan growth, credit “largely in check,” and potential M&A tailwinds (UBS/JPMorgan commentary on regionals).
- Recent management hire (Director of Middle Market Banking for Florida) supports commercial growth narrative.
- Options market skew (low put/call ratios) leans bullish on near-term direction.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Earnings/news tone: reported efficiency ratio miss (64.5%) and management outlook flagged declining revenue and weak net interest income expectations.
- Deposit contraction highlighted by Piper Sandler as a key concern, especially given low-cost funding goals.
- Litigation headline risk: Pomerantz LLP investigation into potential securities fraud/unlawful practices.
- Technicals are not decisively bullish: MACD still below zero; price faces nearby resistance ~2186 with limited immediate room.
- No Intellectia AI Stock Picker or SwingMax entry signal to force a “buy now” setup.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $2.258B, +0.76% YoY (low growth).
Net income: $566M, -17.37% YoY (notable profitability decline).
EPS: 45.78, -6.93% YoY (earnings contraction).
Overall: top-line roughly flat while profits fell, aligning with the weak NII/outlook narrative and cost-efficiency concerns.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent direction: Price targets have been mixed (several trims post-Q4, some raises), while ratings skew Neutral/Hold/Equal Weight with a few Buys.
Notable changes: Goldman downgraded to Neutral (premium valuation, NII headwinds, slower ROTCE expansion). TD Cowen kept Buy but trimmed PT; Barclays/Citi also trimmed post-earnings; Piper raised PT slightly but stayed Neutral.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
- Pros: potential regional bank tailwinds into 2026 (curve, loan growth, M&A), some analysts still modeling upside with $2,346–$2,500 targets.
- Cons: deposit contraction risk, NII headwinds, and the stock trading closer to “fair” for multiple Neutral shops (with ~$2,100 targets near the current ~$2,114 price).

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast FCNCA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FCNCA is 2270 USD with a low forecast of 2000 USD and a high forecast of 2500 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

4 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 2122.950

Low

2000

Averages

2270

High

2500

Current: 2122.950

Low

2000

Averages

2270

High

2500

UBS

Buy

downgrade

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

Reason

UBS

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

downgrade

Buy

Reason

UBS lowered the firm's price target on First Citizens (FCNCA) to $2,325 from $2,500 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Mid-cap banks have delivered strong results and avoided early Q4 credit concerns. Investor momentum into regional banks is expected to continue, supported by curve steepening, accelerating loan growth, and M&A activity such as Santander's (SAN) acquisition of Webster (WBS).

Piper Sandler

Neutral

maintain

2026-01-29

Reason

Piper Sandler

Price Target

2026-01-29

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on First Citizens to $2,100 from $2,000 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm notes the company's Q4 2025 figures offered mixed results, in which the bank drove continued loan growth and directionally improved its TBV and earnings. Yet Piper finds it difficult to ignore this quarter's EOP deposit contraction, especially considering the bank's objective to further repay the purchase money note through low-cost funding generation.

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FCNCA Should I Buy

FCNCA Should I Buy

Should You Buy First Citizens BancShares Inc (Delaware) (FCNCA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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