Should I Buy FATE? FATE 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Fate Therapeutics Inc (FATE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

1.140

1 Day change

8.57%

52 Week Range

1.940

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: price action and momentum signals remain bearish (negative, expanding MACD histogram) and there is no proprietary buy signal to override that.
With no fresh news catalyst and earnings not until 2026-02-26 (after hours), there’s no clear near-term driver for an immediate upside move.
Options positioning is extremely call-heavy (very low put/call ratios) but paired with very high IV, which looks more like speculative upside chasing than a clean, low-risk entry.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.0047 (below zero) and negatively expanding → downside momentum still building.
RSI: RSI(6) at 37.888 → weak/soft momentum (not oversold enough to suggest a strong bounce signal).
Moving averages: converging MAs → consolidation, but with bearish momentum tilt.
Key levels: Pivot 1.21 is overhead resistance; near-term supports at S1 1.126 and S2 1.074. Post-market around ~1.10 sits close to support, but momentum does not confirm a durable reversal.
Probabilistic pattern read: modest expected gains (next week/month) but low confidence (only ~40% hit-rate), not strong enough for an impatient “buy now” call.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put/call ratios (OI and volume) are extremely low → strongly call-skewed flow/positioning (bullish bias).
Volatility: 30D IV ~263% vs historical vol ~78% → options are priced for very large moves; this often implies expensive premium and higher bar for bullish trades to pay off.
Activity: Today’s volume 41 vs 30-day average ratio ~13.14 → notable spike in activity, but absolute volume remains small; can be noisy.
IV trend: IV 5D avg (382) > IV 10D avg (325) > current (263) → volatility has been coming down recently, consistent with post-spike normalization rather than a fresh upside ignition.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings catalyst upcoming: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 after hours could create a tradable move.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Bearish momentum remains in control (MACD negative and weakening), increasing odds of support breaks.
- No news in the recent week → limited immediate catalyst for an impatient, near-term entry.
- Extremely high implied volatility suggests the market is pricing significant uncertainty; upside needs to be large/fast to justify current risk.
- No supportive “smart money” signal: hedge funds neutral and insiders neutral (no recent notable buying trend).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 1.741M, down -43.36% YoY → meaningful top-line contraction.
Net income: -32.25M (still deeply negative); data indicates -32.36% YoY → ongoing losses.
EPS: -0.27, down -32.50% YoY → profitability trend remains weak.
Gross margin: 100% (unchanged YoY) → margin metric is not the issue; the core issue is scale/revenue decline and continued losses.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating or price target change data was provided, so a recent trend assessment cannot be confirmed from this dataset.
Wall Street-style balance (based strictly on available info):
- Pros: upcoming earnings event can re-rate expectations; speculative sentiment appears bullish via call-skew.
- Cons: deteriorating YoY revenue and continued losses; no confirmation of improving fundamentals or fresh positive coverage in the provided data.
Politicians/Influential trading: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.

9 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast FATE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FATE is 4.64 USD with a low forecast of 2 USD and a high forecast of 8 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

4 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 1.050

Low

Averages

4.64

High

Current: 1.050

Low

Averages

4.64

High

H.C. Wainwright

Robert Burns

Neutral -> Buy

upgrade

AI Analysis

2025-10-31

Reason

H.C. Wainwright

Robert Burns

Price Target

AI Analysis

2025-10-31

upgrade

Neutral -> Buy

Reason

H.C. Wainwright analyst Robert Burns upgraded Fate Therapeutics to Buy from Neutral with a $5 price target. The firm views the early results results from Fate's FT819 in 10 heavily pretreated systemic lupus erythematosus patients as "encouraging." The firm cites the results and the stock's valuation for the upgrade.

Wedbush

Martin Fan

Neutral

Outperform

upgrade

$5 -> $7

2025-10-27

Reason

Wedbush

Martin Fan

Price Target

$5 -> $7

2025-10-27

upgrade

Neutral

Outperform

Reason

As previously reported, Wedbush analyst Martin Fan upgraded Fate Therapeutics to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $7, up from $5. The firm sees promise for lead program FT819 with increasing evidence for durable response, high patient accessibility, and positive regulatory engagement. Based on updated results at ACR and an approaching pivotal trial in lupus, Wedbush is moving from the sidelines on Fate shares and now recommends them to investors. The firm sees upside into ASH and would be a buyer ahead of follow-up at ASH and further clinical/regulatory catalysts.

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FATE Should I Buy

FATE Should I Buy

Should You Buy Fate Therapeutics Inc (FATE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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