Buy now: trend structure is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and price is holding above the pivot (~13.74), suggesting buyers are defending current levels.
Near-term upside is attractive for an impatient entry: first resistance ~14.02 (R1) then ~14.20 (R2), which aligns with the positive 1W/1M pattern-based probabilities.
Wall Street tone has been improving (recent upgrades/target raises), supporting a higher trading range into the next few weeks.
Options positioning is mixed but not bearish: put open interest is heavier (hedging), while put/call volume is call-leaning (more bullish flow).
Momentum: RSI(6) ~53 is neutral—no overbought condition, leaving room for continuation.
MACD: Histogram slightly negative (-0.0118) but contracting, consistent with fading downside momentum and potential continuation higher if price pushes through 14.02.
Key levels: Pivot 13.735 (current price ~13.84 just above). Support: 13.451 (S1), then 13.275 (S2). Resistance: 14.02 (R1), then 14.196 (R2). A clean hold above the pivot favors a push to R1/R2.
Volatility: 30D IV ~39.41 vs historical vol ~26.37 (IV rich), IV percentile ~66.5—market is pricing elevated movement into upcoming events.
Activity: Today’s option volume is light vs recent averages (today 30.9k vs 5D/10D averages ~75.8k/80.5k; ~28% of 30D avg), suggesting no major “crowded” options bet today despite elevated IV.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
13
Positive Catalysts
Analyst sentiment improving: multiple price target raises and a notable upgrade (Piper to Overweight with a large PT reset) tied to EV strategy realignment.
Strategic catalyst: talks with Geely for a potential European factory/technology partnership could improve asset utilization and speed product/tech sharing.
Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-10 (after hours) can act as a near-term re-rating event if guidance/auto margins hold.
Operating narrative: continued pivot toward more profitable ICE/hybrid mix and reduced EV losses (a recurring theme across recent analyst notes).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
implies meaningful hedging/defensive positioning remains in place.
Recent trend: clear upward drift in price targets and tone since late 2025 into Jan 2026.
Most constructive calls: JPMorgan kept Overweight and raised PT to $15; Piper Sandler upgraded to Overweight and lifted PT to $16, citing EV “capitulation” and a better next-gen platform approach.
More neutral/hold camp: Barclays (Equal Weight, PT $13), Goldman (Neutral, PT $14), Morgan Stanley (Equal Weight, PT $14), Jefferies (Hold, PT $15) — supportive on restructuring but focused on execution risk.
Wall Street pros: improving profitability narrative, reduced EV losses, stronger production backdrop, and potential compliance-cost tailwinds.
Wall Street cons: execution risk on the new EV/EREV roadmap, competitive pressure in EVs, and demand headlines (recent sales/EV sales weakness).
Wall Street analysts forecast F stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for F is 13.65 USD with a low forecast of 11 USD and a high forecast of 16 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast F stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for F is 13.65 USD with a low forecast of 11 USD and a high forecast of 16 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
10 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 13.720
Low
11
Averages
13.65
High
16
Current: 13.720
Low
11
Averages
13.65
High
16
Barclays
Equal Weight
maintain
$12 -> $13
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$12 -> $13
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays raised the firm's price target on Ford to $13 from $12 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the autos and mobility group as part of a Q4 preview. Barclays continue to prefer the car markers, saying they are benefiting from "healthy" production rates and reduced electric vehicle losses.
JPMorgan
Ryan Brinkman
Overweight
maintain
$14 -> $15
2026-01-21
Reason
JPMorgan
Ryan Brinkman
Price Target
$14 -> $15
2026-01-21
maintain
Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman raised the firm's price target on Ford to $15 from $14 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm upped 2026 estimates for Ford and General Motors well ahead of consensus to reflect stronger global production. It sees "billion dollar tailwinds" from reduced emissions compliance costs. JPMorgan expects GM's and Ford's 2026 guidance to benefit from eliminated penalties associated with incomplete compliance with U.S. federal corporate average fuel economy and greenhouse gas.
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