Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: trend structure is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and pattern-based forward odds point to near-term drift lower.
Earnings/news were positive (Q2 beat + upbeat guidance), but the stock is sitting just below a key resistance zone (~15.46), making upside follow-through less attractive without a cleaner breakout.
Options sentiment leans bullish (put/call ratios < 1), but that alone doesn’t offset the still-bearish moving-average setup and the negative 1D/1W/1M probabilistic trend read.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Moving averages are bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating the broader trend is still down despite recent stabilization.
MACD: Histogram is positive and expanding (0.0271), suggesting improving upside momentum, but it’s early relative to the bearish MA stack.
RSI (6): ~49.7 (neutral) — no momentum extreme; price can swing either way.
Key levels: Pivot ~14.82. Support S1 ~14.18 (then S2 ~13.78). Resistance R1 ~15.46 (then R2 ~15.86). At ~15, the stock is closer to resistance than support, which is a worse entry for an impatient buyer.
Pattern-based outlook: Similar candlestick pattern model implies downside bias: ~80% chance of -1.51% next day, -1.11% next week, -3.28% next month.
Positioning/Sentiment: Open Interest put-call ratio 0.74 and volume put-call ratio 0.45 both indicate more call interest/flow than puts (bullish tilt).
Volatility: IV (30d) ~42.08 vs historical vol ~32.21 suggests options are priced rich relative to realized; near-term IV has been coming down (5d avg ~51.74 → now ~42.08), implying post-event volatility compression.
Activity: Today’s total option volume is small (32 contracts) relative to recent 5D/10D averages shown, so the signal is more about skew than heavy conviction size.
Cons: Mixed underlying metrics and margin pressure; UBS downgrade action suggests the market may demand cleaner fundamentals before re-rating.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; no politician/influential buying/selling data provided.
Wall Street analysts forecast EXTR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXTR is 24.75 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 26 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast EXTR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXTR is 24.75 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 26 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 15.060
Low
24
Averages
24.75
High
26
Current: 15.060
Low
24
Averages
24.75
High
26
UBS
David Vogt
Neutral
downgrade
$21 -> $17
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
Reason
UBS
David Vogt
Price Target
$21 -> $17
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
UBS analyst David Vogt lowered the firm's price target on Extreme Networks to $17 from $21 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. UBS remains on the sidelines amid "mixed" Q2 metrics, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
BofA
Tomer Zilberman
initiated
$24
2025-11-19
Reason
BofA
Tomer Zilberman
Price Target
$24
2025-11-19
initiated
Reason
BofA analyst Tomer Zilberman initiated coverage of Extreme Networks with a Buy rating and $24 price target.
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