Buy now for a swing trade: SwingMax fired an entry signal on 2026-02-04 and price has barely moved (+0.18%), so the setup is still early.
Near-term upside is supported by the pattern-based forecast (next month +4.09%) and supportive options positioning (put/call OI < 1).
Not a clean trend-following buy (bearish long/medium moving-average stack), but momentum is improving (MACD negative but contracting) and price is holding above the pivot (~140.27).
Key levels: support ~140.27 then 135.99; upside targets ~144.55 then ~147.19.
No politician activity or news catalyst detected; the next major catalyst is earnings (2026-02-19 after hours).
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bearish structure remains (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), suggesting the longer trend is still downward/weak.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.652) but contracting, implying downside momentum is fading and a rebound attempt is plausible.
RSI: RSI(6)=60.36 (neutral-to-slightly bullish), consistent with a rebound rather than an overbought spike.
Price map: Pivot 140.27 is the line in the sand; resistance at 144.55 (R1) and 147.19 (R2); supports at 135.99 (S1) and 133.35 (S2).
SwingMax: Entry signal on 2026-02-04; price change since signal: +0.18% (still actionable).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Put/Call OI ratio at 0.82 indicates more call open interest than puts (mildly bullish sentiment/hedging skew).
Flows: Put volume is 0 with call volume 25; volume today is elevated vs 30-day avg (12.82x), suggesting attention is picking up.
Volatility: 30D IV 30.65 vs historical vol 22.97 (IV > HV) and IV percentile 90.04 → options are priced rich, implying the market expects movement (often around catalysts like earnings).
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
SwingMax entry signal indicates a buy-low/sell-high opportunity right now.
Supply/demand backdrop for self-storage described by analysts as improving vs prior periods (new supply slowing; move-in rates stabilizing).
Earnings catalyst ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-19 (after hours) can re-rate the stock quickly if guidance surprises positively.
Pattern-based projection favors upside: ~+0.99% next day, +1.68% next week, +4.09% next month (probabilistic).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
suggests rallies can face overhead supply.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $858.46M, +4.08% YoY (growth intact).
Net income: $165.57M, -14.13% YoY (profitability pressured).
EPS: $0.78, -11.36% YoY (earnings compression).
Gross margin: 49.82%, +1.90% YoY (operating efficiency/mix improved, but not enough to offset net income decline).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: price targets generally cut and sentiment moderated; notable downgrade from Scotiabank to Sector Perform (PT $145 from $162).
Latest changes: Truist raised PT to $146 (Hold) but remains neutral; UBS kept Buy but lowered PT (to $148).
Wall Street pros: improving REIT macro setup into 2026 (easing supply pressures, potential turnaround conditions), EXR viewed as high-quality.
Wall Street cons: expectations for weaker 2026/2027 self-storage revenue growth, and potential loss of any valuation premium vs peers (e.g., PSA); demand headwinds cited from slower job growth and muted housing turnover.
Wall Street analysts forecast EXR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXR is 152 USD with a low forecast of 142 USD and a high forecast of 178 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast EXR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXR is 152 USD with a low forecast of 142 USD and a high forecast of 178 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 138.540
Low
142
Averages
152
High
178
Current: 138.540
Low
142
Averages
152
High
178
BofA
Neutral -> Underperform
downgrade
$163 -> $143
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$163 -> $143
AI Analysis
2026-02-05
New
downgrade
Neutral -> Underperform
Reason
As previously reported, BofA downgraded Extra Space Storage to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $143, down from $163. The firm sees a lack of "clear green shoots" to support a meaningful demand recovery even though fundamentals bottomed and sees risk of "underwhelming guidance," noting that management has noted that improved new-customer rate growth will take time to translate into SS revenue.
BofA
Jeffrey Spector
Neutral -> Underperform
downgrade
$163 -> $143
2026-02-05
New
Reason
BofA
Jeffrey Spector
Price Target
$163 -> $143
2026-02-05
New
downgrade
Neutral -> Underperform
Reason
BofA analyst Jeffrey Spector downgraded Extra Space Storage to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $143, down from $163.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for EXR
