Should I Buy EXLS? EXLS 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Exlservice Holdings Inc (EXLS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

31.700

1 Day change

1.60%

52 Week Range

52.430

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the dominant trend is still bearish (bearish moving-average stack + MACD downside momentum), and probability signals also skew negative over the next day/week.
The stock is sitting near support (S1 ~33.12) and is extremely oversold (RSI_6 ~16.6), which can trigger sharp bounces—but this is a “falling knife” setup without confirmation of a trend reversal.
Options positioning looks aggressively call-heavy, but implied volatility is extremely elevated (IV percentile ~97.6), suggesting heightened event/pricing risk rather than a clean bullish edge.
With earnings on 2026-02-26 (after hours) approaching and no proprietary buy signal today, the higher-probability move is to avoid buying now.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Bearish. SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 confirms a sustained downtrend.
MACD: Histogram -1.02 and negatively expanding → downside momentum is strengthening, not stabilizing yet.
RSI: RSI_6 at 16.639 → deeply oversold; bounce potential is real, but oversold alone is not a buy trigger in a strong downtrend.
Key levels: Price is near S1 ~33.115; a clean break below increases risk of a move toward S2 ~30.241. Pivot resistance sits much higher near ~37.768.
Pattern-based forward odds: Similar candlestick-pattern set implies ~60% chance of additional downside (next day/week), reducing the attractiveness of an immediate entry.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment from flow: Extremely call-dominant (OI PCR 0.11; volume PCR 0.02) → traders are positioned more bullish than bearish.
Activity spike: Today’s option volume is ~873% of the 30-day average → unusual attention, often tied to event anticipation.
Volatility regime: 30D IV ~51.22 vs historical vol ~64.52; IV percentile ~97.61 (very high) → options are priced for big moves; this often means directional edge is harder unless you have strong conviction/timing.
Net takeaway: Options data suggests bullish appetite, but the very high IV and bearish tape make “buying stock now” a lower-quality setup.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- News/recognition: EXL named a Leader in Payer Digital Transformation Services for the 4th consecutive year—supports brand strength and healthcare vertical credibility.
- Fundamental momentum: Last reported quarter showed double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion (see financials).
- Analyst stance: Buy rating maintained with a still-optimistic price target relative to current price.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical deterioration: Bearish moving averages + expanding negative MACD indicates trend is still accelerating downward.
- Near-term statistical bias: Pattern-based outlook points to higher odds of additional declines in the next day/week.
- Earnings catalyst ahead (2026-02-26 AH): Can amplify volatility and downside if expectations are not exceeded.
- Positioning risk: Extremely call-heavy positioning can unwind quickly if price fails to hold support.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $529.585M, +12.18% YoY → solid top-line growth.
Net income: $58.161M, +9.66% YoY → profitability improving but slightly slower than revenue.
EPS: $0.36, +9.09% YoY → steady earnings growth.
Gross margin: 35.65%, +2.32% YoY → positive margin trend (operational quality improving).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Most recent update (2026-01-09): TD Cowen lowered price target to $51 from $52, reiterated Buy.
Trend in revisions: Slight downward price-target adjustment, but overall constructive view maintained (suggests mild caution on near-term, confidence in longer-term setup).
Wall Street pros view (pros): Improving enterprise IT spend backdrop expected; valuation described as discounted; company fundamentals show growth + margin expansion.
Wall Street cons view (cons): The small PT cut implies tempered expectations; current tape/technical trend is not cooperating despite the longer-term thesis.
Ownership/trading behavior: Hedge funds neutral; insiders neutral; no recent Congress trading data available.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast EXLS stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXLS is 52.25 USD with a low forecast of 49 USD and a high forecast of 55 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 31.200

Low

Averages

52.25

High

Current: 31.200

Low

Averages

52.25

High

TD Cowen

Buy

downgrade

$52 -> $51

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

Reason

TD Cowen

Price Target

$52 -> $51

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

downgrade

Buy

Reason

TD Cowen lowered the firm's price target on ExlService to $51 from $52 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is "constructive" on services sector setup for 2026, anticipating gradual improvement in enterprise IT spend at a time when average valuations remain discounted.

JPMorgan

Puneet Jain

Overweight

downgrade

$56 -> $52

2025-08-20

Reason

JPMorgan

Puneet Jain

Price Target

$56 -> $52

2025-08-20

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

JPMorgan analyst Puneet Jain lowered the firm's price target on ExlService to $52 from $56 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm updated targets in IT services post the Q2 reports, saying the sector is in the third straight year of below-average revenue growth. An improvement in growth is needed to drive higher valuation multiples, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan is optimistic that sector growth will improve.

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EXLS Should I Buy

EXLS Should I Buy

Should You Buy Exlservice Holdings Inc (EXLS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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