Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: near-term technicals are soft (below pivot with bearish MACD), and pattern-based odds skew to further downside over 1W–1M.
Upside catalysts exist (FDA NDA acceptance; multiple upcoming trials), but they are longer-dated and likely won’t prevent near-term chop into earnings.
Insider selling has surged (+828% last month), which weakens the risk/reward for buying immediately.
Net: HOLD/avoid new buys at current ~$42.65; it becomes more compelling only if it reclaims ~$43–$44 with strength or pulls back closer to ~$41 support.
Technical Analysis
Price is slightly below the pivot (Pivot 42.981 vs current ~42.65), implying a mild near-term bearish/neutral posture.
MACD histogram is negative (-0.244) and still below zero (bearish momentum), though “negatively contracting” suggests downside momentum may be slowing.
RSI(6) ~42.2: neutral-to-weak (not oversold), so no strong mean-reversion “buy now” signal.
Moving averages are converging: typically a consolidation phase; direction likely decided by earnings/news.
Key levels: Support S1 41.138 (then S2 39.999); Resistance R1 44.824 (then R2 45.963). A break below ~41 increases risk of a quicker slide toward ~40.
Quant pattern analogue: ~50% chance of -0.89% next day, -5.57% next week, -11.58% next month (bearish near-term bias).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning leans bullish: Put/Call OI ratio 0.36 (calls dominate open interest) and Put/Call volume ratio 0.45.
Implied vol is elevated: IV30 ~45.49 vs historical vol ~37.99; IV percentile ~86.45 → options are priced rich (market expects a move).
Notable activity spike vs baseline: today’s option volume vs 30D avg is 6.89x (even if absolute contracts are modest), indicating heightened event interest (earnings soon).
Takeaway: sentiment/positioning is more bullish than bearish, but elevated IV implies the market is already paying up for catalysts (less “cheap” upside).
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
on 2026-02-10 after hours could provide near-term upside if guidance/trajectory surprises positively.
supports the fundamental backdrop heading into catalysts.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical/quant near-term bias points lower (risk of drifting toward 41/40 before a cleaner entry).
Gross margin: 96.89% (+0.10% YoY), indicating continued very high-margin profile.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: price targets generally nudged higher (Barclays to $44; Morgan Stanley to $49; H.C. Wainwright to $52), but overall ratings skew to Neutral/Equal Weight with notable dissent (BofA Underperform).
Bull case (Street pros): Wainwright sees “encouraging” 2026 guidance and upcoming catalysts; optimism centers on zanzalintinib’s commercial future across multiple tumor types.
Bear case (Street cons): valuation and catalyst timing; concerns that zanzalintinib may not fully replace cabozantinib/Cabometyx and LOE risk by ~2031.
Net Street view: mixed-to-neutral (some upside PTs, but multiple Equal Weight/Neutral stances and one clear Underperform call).
Wall Street analysts forecast EXEL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXEL is 44.09 USD with a low forecast of 30 USD and a high forecast of 52 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast EXEL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXEL is 44.09 USD with a low forecast of 30 USD and a high forecast of 52 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
8 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 42.370
Low
30
Averages
44.09
High
52
Current: 42.370
Low
30
Averages
44.09
High
52
Barclays
Etzer Darout
Equal Weight
maintain
$41 -> $44
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
Reason
Barclays
Etzer Darout
Price Target
$41 -> $44
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays analyst Etzer Darout raised the firm's price target on Exelixis to $44 from $41 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares as part of a Q4 earnings preview for the biotechnology group.
Morgan Stanley
Sean Laaman
Equal Weight
maintain
$48 -> $49
2026-02-02
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Sean Laaman
Price Target
$48 -> $49
2026-02-02
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Sean Laaman raised the firm's price target on Exelixis to $49 from $48 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for EXEL
