Buy now for a near-term rebound setup: price is sitting at/just below first support (S1 43.535) after a -1.33% regular-session drop, which favors a mean-reversion bounce.
Street price targets cluster around ~$47–$51 (vs. ~43.43), implying meaningful upside if sentiment stabilizes ahead of earnings.
Hedge funds have been aggressively adding (buying amount +2344.75% QoQ), supporting the “buy-the-dip” case.
Main pushback: momentum is still bearish (MACD negative and worsening) and regulatory/political “noise” is a real overhang—so this is a tactical buy, not a momentum chase.
Technical Analysis
Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0683) and negatively expanding → bearish momentum still in control.
RSI: RSI_6 at 29.949 (near oversold territory) → conditions favor a bounce attempt rather than fresh downside chasing.
Moving averages: converging MAs → consolidation/transition phase; price action is the key driver near support.
Key levels: Pivot 44.256 (reclaiming this improves near-term tone). Support S1 43.535 (currently slightly below), then S2 43.088. Resistance R1 44.978 then R2 45.425.
Pattern-based forward odds (similar candlesticks): modest bullish skew (60% chance of ~+1.02% next day; ~+1.76% next week), consistent with a short-term rebound bias from support.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Open-interest put/call ratio 0.35 is call-heavy (bullish positioning/hedging light).
Flow: Put/call volume ratio 1.0 is neutral on the day (puts and calls balanced by volume).
Volatility: 30D IV 22.9 vs historical vol 14.71 → options are pricing elevated move/risk; IV percentile 75.3 suggests volatility is high relative to its recent range.
Activity: Today’s option volume (1100) is below its 30D average (67.82%), suggesting no “panic”/capitulation flow—more of a controlled pullback than a blowout.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
Earnings catalyst ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-12 (pre-market) can reset sentiment if guidance is steady.
Operational/community program wins at ComEd (Energy Saving Kits, Low-Income Discount enrollment growth) support constructive local narrative and customer engagement.
Institutional support: hedge funds are accumulating aggressively, which often supports near-term dips.
If price reclaims the 44.256 pivot, technical mean reversion could carry toward ~45+ (R1/R2 region).
Gross margin: 46.25%, down -0.58% YoY (slight compression, but not derailing earnings growth).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: multiple firms trimmed price targets modestly (Barclays to $50; Wells Fargo to $51; UBS to $48; JPMorgan to $47; Morgan Stanley previously cut then raised back up to $51), signaling tempered—but still positive—forward expectations.
Rating tone: mixed/mostly neutral-to-positive (Overweight from Barclays/Wells; Equal Weight from Morgan Stanley; Sector Perform/Neutral elsewhere), but with notable pockets of bearishness (KeyBanc Underweight; Goldman Sell).
Key change: Wolfe downgraded to Peer Perform (no PT), citing regulatory/political noise and below-average growth as valuation constraints.
Wall Street “pros”: discount to peers with potential upside tied to data-center load/resource adequacy optionality; many targets sit well above current price.
Wall Street “cons”: capped multiple expansion risk from politics/regulatory dynamics in key states and slower structural growth as a wires-only utility.
Wall Street analysts forecast EXC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXC is 49.46 USD with a low forecast of 39 USD and a high forecast of 57 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast EXC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXC is 49.46 USD with a low forecast of 39 USD and a high forecast of 57 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
6 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 44.060
Low
39
Averages
49.46
High
57
Current: 44.060
Low
39
Averages
49.46
High
57
Wolfe Research
Outperform -> Peer Perform
downgrade
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
Reason
Wolfe Research
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
downgrade
Outperform -> Peer Perform
Reason
Wolfe Research downgraded Exelon to Peer Perform from Outperform without a price target. The firm thinks political and regulatory "noise" in the company's key states and its below-average earnings growth of 5%-7% will hold back the stock's valuation. Wolfe expects expect an in-line 2026 guidance from Exelon.
Barclays
Nicholas Campanella
Overweight
downgrade
$52 -> $50
2026-01-22
Reason
Barclays
Nicholas Campanella
Price Target
$52 -> $50
2026-01-22
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Barclays analyst Nicholas Campanella lowered the firm's price target on Exelon to $50 from $52 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the power and utilities group as part of a Q4 preview.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for EXC
