Should I Buy EXAS? EXAS 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Exact Sciences Corp (EXAS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

103.180

1 Day change

0.51%

52 Week Range

103.420

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good fresh buy right now for an impatient investor: the stock is largely trading as deal-arbitrage toward the $105 Abbott takeout price, leaving limited near-term upside (~2–3%) versus deal/closing headline risk.
Best fit is a hold (or small arb position only if you specifically want the spread), rather than an aggressive buy for outsized returns.
Hedge fund activity is a headwind (heavy selling), and analysts have broadly moved to Hold/Neutral post-deal.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Price action appears range-bound/consolidating near the pivot (Pivot 102.396; S1 102.173; R1 102.619), consistent with merger-arb “pinning” behavior.
Trend/MAs: Bullish moving average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) supports the broader uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.327 (below 0) but negatively contracting → downside momentum is present but weakening.
RSI(6) ~49.7 → neutral, no strong overbought/oversold signal.
Near-term takeaway: technically stable, but upside is likely capped by the $105 deal price rather than chart breakout potential.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: Put-call ratios (OI 0.47; Volume 0.33) are call-leaning/bullish, consistent with market expecting deal completion.
Volatility: 30D IV ~10.95 with low IV rank/percentile (IV Rank ~4.74; IV%ile ~19.52) → options market is pricing low uncertainty.
Flow/participation: Today’s volume is very small (12 contracts) despite “vs avg” stat; overall liquidity/interest looks muted, typical when price is anchored to a deal value.
Net: options imply calm, slightly bullish sentiment, but not a strong momentum signal for a new buy.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Primary catalyst remains the Abbott acquisition at $105/share, which supports a floor and a defined upside to the deal price.
- Federal legislation passed expanding Medicare coverage for multi-cancer early detection tests (tailwind for Exact Sciences’ category and long-term narrative).
- Upcoming calendar: earnings scheduled 2026-02-19 (after hours) could move the spread if deal timing/terms commentary changes.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Limited upside from current ~$102.2 to $105 reduces attractiveness for a new position, especially for an impatient investor.
- Deal risk/headlines: law firms (Halper Sadeh) investigating the transaction for potential securities violations—often routine, but can generate negative headlines.
- Trading trends: hedge funds are selling aggressively (selling amount up ~614% QoQ), which can pressure the spread and signal reduced confidence/rotation.
- If deal timing extends, the annualized return on the spread may become less appealing versus other opportunities.

Financial Performance

Latest provided quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $850.739M (+20.05% YoY) → strong top-line growth.
Profitability: Net income -19.594M (down -48.76% YoY) and EPS -0.10 (down -52.38% YoY) → losses widened vs last year.
Gross margin: 68.64% (down ~0.35% YoY) → slightly softer margin profile.
Bottom line: fundamentals show solid growth but still negative earnings; however, near-term trading is dominated by the takeout rather than standalone fundamentals.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Clear post-deal shift to neutrality: multiple firms downgraded to Hold/Neutral/In Line after the Abbott acquisition announcement.
Price targets clustered at $105, matching the announced takeout price (e.g., Stifel, Piper Sandler, Canaccord, TD Cowen, Craig-Hallum, Evercore).
Wall Street “pros”: deal provides defined value and reduces fundamental debate; legislation tailwind supports the category narrative.
Wall Street “cons”: with the stock no longer trading on fundamentals, upside is capped at the deal price and depends on closing/timing certainty.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available (no signal of influential buying/selling from that dataset).

20 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast EXAS stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXAS is 100.2 USD with a low forecast of 78 USD and a high forecast of 105 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

19 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 102.660

Low

Averages

100.2

High

105

Current: 102.660

Low

Averages

100.2

High

105

Evercore ISI

Outperform

In Line

downgrade

$105

AI Analysis

2026-01-05

Reason

Evercore ISI

Price Target

$105

AI Analysis

2026-01-05

downgrade

Outperform

In Line

Reason

Evercore ISI downgraded Exact Sciences to In Line from Outperform with an unchanged price target of $105.

Stifel

Buy

Hold

downgrade

$80 -> $105

2025-11-28

Reason

Stifel

Price Target

$80 -> $105

2025-11-28

downgrade

Buy

Hold

Reason

Stifel downgraded Exact Sciences (EXAS) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $105, up from $80, after the company announced an agreement to be acquired by Abbott (ABT) for $105 per share.

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EXAS Should I Buy

EXAS Should I Buy

Should You Buy Exact Sciences Corp (EXAS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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