Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: the trend is decisively bearish and price just broke below near-term support.
Oversold (RSI ~12) can produce a dead-cat bounce, but there is no proprietary buy signal to justify stepping in immediately.
Options positioning is bullish (call-skew), but it’s not translating into price strength yet.
Best call right now: wait/hold until EVLV reclaims key levels (5.55 then 6.10) or a proprietary signal triggers; otherwise downside risk remains near-term.
Technical Analysis
Price trend: Bearish structure with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 (downtrend across long/medium/short-term).
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.095 and negatively expanding -> downside momentum is still accelerating.
RSI(6) = 12.54 -> extremely oversold; bounce risk is rising, but oversold alone is not a buy trigger while momentum is worsening.
Levels: Pivot 6.10 (major reclaim level). Support: S1 5.55 (already broken post-market at ~5.43), next support S2 5.21. Resistance: R1 6.65 then R2 6.99.
Pattern-based forward look: estimated 70% chance of -3.37% next day and -1.28% next week; 1-month skew positive (+10.63%), suggesting a potential rebound later, not necessarily immediately.
Volatility: 30D IV ~97.75% vs historical vol ~50.59% -> options are pricing large moves; IV percentile ~54.6 (mid-range, not extreme).
Activity: Today’s options volume 1,088 with call volume 994 vs put volume 94; volume appears below recent averages (5D/10D volume avgs ~2.6k/2.8k), suggesting the call-skew is more positioning than a fresh surge today.
Open interest: Calls (77,968) far exceed puts (13,275), reinforcing bullish longer-positioning, but price action remains weak.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
Analyst support: Lake Street reiterated Buy and raised price target to $10 (from $9), citing Q3 beat and expectation of 2026 as a “breakout year” with ARR growth exceeding revenue growth.
Options market skew is bullish (call-heavy), which can help fuel rebounds if price stabilizes.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
and trend/momentum indicators remain bearish.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $42.85M, up 56.62% YoY (strong growth).
Net income: -$1.80M (down -94.10% YoY as provided), still loss-making.
EPS: -$0.01 (down -94.74% YoY as provided).
Gross margin: 54.16%, down 6.27% YoY (margin compression).
Takeaway: Growth is strong, but improving profitability/margins is not yet evident in the latest quarter snapshot.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Most recent update (2025-11-14): Lake Street (Eric Martinuzzi) maintained a Buy and raised PT to $10 from $9 after a strong Q3; expects 2026 to be a breakout year.
Wall Street pro view (pros): strong revenue growth, perceived ARR/revenue inflection potential into 2026.
Wall Street con view (cons): current tape is weak (downtrend), and margins/profitability are still pressured; near-term price action is not confirming the bullish fundamental narrative.
Institutional/insider flow context: hedge funds neutral (no significant last-quarter trend) and insiders neutral (no significant last-month trend).
Politicians/congress: no recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days (no signal from that channel).
Wall Street analysts forecast EVLV stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EVLV is 9.83 USD with a low forecast of 9.5 USD and a high forecast of 10 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast EVLV stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EVLV is 9.83 USD with a low forecast of 9.5 USD and a high forecast of 10 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 5.280
Low
9.5
Averages
9.83
High
10
Current: 5.280
Low
9.5
Averages
9.83
High
10
Lake Street
Eric Martinuzzi
Buy
maintain
$9 -> $10
AI Analysis
2025-11-14
Reason
Lake Street
Eric Martinuzzi
Price Target
$9 -> $10
AI Analysis
2025-11-14
maintain
Buy
Reason
Lake Street analyst Eric Martinuzzi raised the firm's price target on Evolv to $10 from $9 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Q3 beat "by a mile," says the analyst, who sees 2026 as "a breakout year" in which ARR growth will exceed revenue growth.
TD Cowen
NULL
to
Buy
initiated
$10
2025-08-15
Reason
TD Cowen
Price Target
$10
2025-08-15
initiated
NULL
to
Buy
Reason
TD Cowen reinstated coverage of Evolv with a Buy rating and $10 price target. Under new management, the company's statements have been completed and its regulatory overhangs have "gradually diminished." the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Evolv reported "healthy" Q2 results and raised its fiscal 2025 revenue outlook as it sees momentum across major verticals.
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