Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price trend is still firmly bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and momentum remains negative.
Oversold RSI (~18) can produce short bounces, but without a proprietary buy signal (AI Stock Picker/SwingMax) and with elevated event risk into earnings, the odds favor chop/down rather than a durable reversal.
Options are pricing extreme uncertainty (IV percentile ~96), implying the market expects a large move—this is not an attractive “buy now” setup without confirmation.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bearish across timeframes with stacked moving averages (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), signaling a sustained downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0584) though contracting, which can precede stabilization but is not a confirmed reversal.
RSI: RSI(6) at ~18.35 is deeply oversold—bounce potential exists, but oversold can persist in strong downtrends.
Levels: Price 3.06 is sitting on S1 (3.089). A clean break below points to S2 (~2.841). Upside levels to reclaim: Pivot 3.49 then R1 3.891.
Quant pattern bias: Similar-pattern stats show slightly negative drift (next week -0.47%, next month -1.54%).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment/positioning: Put/Call OI ratio 0.36 suggests call-heavy positioning (bullish tilt), but today’s volume is tiny (2 contracts), so the signal is weak.
Volatility: 30D IV ~145% vs historical vol ~48% and IV percentile ~96 indicates options are extremely expensive and pricing a big catalyst move.
Activity: Today’s volume vs 30D average is elevated (1.52x) but on a very small absolute base; open interest is much larger than daily volume, implying positioning is mostly pre-existing.
Takeaway: Options market is pricing high uncertainty into the near-term (earnings window), not a “calm” buy setup.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
increases probability of a short-term relief bounce.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Event risk: earnings soon + extremely high implied volatility suggests potential for a sharp downside move if guidance disappoints.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $479.5M, down -22.83% YoY (clear top-line contraction).
Profitability: Net income -$26.93M (still loss-making), EPS -0.24.
Margin: Gross margin improved to 15.88% (+93.42% YoY), a bright spot, but not yet translating into profitability.
Overall: Mixed quality—margin improving, but revenue decline and ongoing losses keep the stock fragile into the next report.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Ratings tone: Most analysts continue to rate EVH as Buy/Overweight/Outperform, but price targets have been cut aggressively, reflecting reduced confidence and higher near-term risk.
Recent target cuts: BTIG $16->$10; Citi $11.5->$9.5; JPMorgan $13->$7; Canaccord $16->$9; Oppenheimer $18->$12; Citizens JMP $13->$11. Stephens upgraded to Overweight with $7 target.
Wall Street pros: pipeline/new bookings visibility and longer-run EBITDA acceleration potential.
Wall Street cons: 2026 uncertainty (ACA/MA/Medicaid dynamics), medical cost trend concerns, and near-term pressure on value-based care models.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; no notable insider trend reported (neutral).
Wall Street analysts forecast EVH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EVH is 9.33 USD with a low forecast of 5 USD and a high forecast of 16 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast EVH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EVH is 9.33 USD with a low forecast of 5 USD and a high forecast of 16 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 2.890
Low
5
Averages
9.33
High
16
Current: 2.890
Low
5
Averages
9.33
High
16
BTIG
David Larsen
Buy
downgrade
$16 -> $10
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
Reason
BTIG
David Larsen
Price Target
$16 -> $10
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
downgrade
Buy
Reason
BTIG analyst David Larsen lowered the firm's price target on Evolent Health to $10 from $16 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note previewing Q4 for Healthcare IT and Digital Health names. High medical trend is good for volume driven, fee-for-service stocks but unfavorable for value-based care stocks, and given macro challenges, the company may remain under pressure unless the management can offset investor concerns with favorable 2026 guidance and Q4 earnings, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Citi
Buy
downgrade
2025-11-21
Reason
Citi
Price Target
2025-11-21
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Citi lowered the firm's price target on Evolent Health to $9.50 from $11.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
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