Should I Buy ETSY? ETSY 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy ETSY Inc (ETSY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

57.820

1 Day change

6.17%

52 Week Range

76.520

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: price action is weak (bearish MACD expansion) and options flow shows heavy near-term put demand.
Wall Street is largely Neutral/Hold with a clear trend of lowered price targets, limiting upside narrative into the next few weeks.
Earnings (2025/Q4) on 2026-02-18 is a major event catalyst; with bearish sentiment and elevated IV, the risk/reward for an impatient entry is unattractive today.

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum: MACD histogram -1.072 and negatively expanding → downside momentum is strengthening.
RSI(6) = 21.698 → deeply oversold short-term; a bounce is possible, but oversold is not a reversal signal by itself when MACD is still worsening.
Moving averages: converging → suggests transition/indecision, but current momentum remains bearish.
Levels: Pivot 56.95 is overhead resistance; key support S1 51.312 then S2 47.829. With price ~53–54, it is sitting uncomfortably close to support, not breaking back above pivot.
Pattern-based forward look: modest edge for a 1-week bounce (+3.45%) but flat-to-negative over a month (-0.38%), consistent with “oversold bounce within a weak broader tape.”

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put volume is extremely elevated (put/call volume ratio 4.72) → traders are actively buying puts/positioning defensively short-term.
Positioning: Open-interest put/call ratio 0.91 → overall OI is closer to balanced, so the bearishness is more acute in today’s flow than in long-term positioning.
Volatility: 30D IV 68.43 vs historical vol 40.31; IV percentile 93.23 (IV rank 80.71) → options are expensive and pricing in heightened event/risk (consistent with upcoming earnings).
Activity: Today’s volume 9,466; ~106.5% of 30D average → above-normal attention, skewed bearish by put volume.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Potential oversold rebound setup: very low short-term RSI can spark a tactical bounce if selling pressure eases.
- Earnings catalyst (2026-02-18 pre-market): any sign of re-accelerating GMS/guide could quickly re-rate the stock.
- News flow: Hussman Strategic Advisors increased its stake in Etsy (added 42,000 shares; Etsy now 1.13% of AUM) → one notable investor adding exposure.
- Prior commentary suggests valuation looks “attractive” on price-to-sales (news cited ~2.3), which can support dip-buying interest if fundamentals stabilize.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Momentum remains bearish: MACD is negative and expanding, implying sellers still in control.
- Options tape is defensive: very high put/call volume ratio signals near-term fear/hedging.
- Hedge fund flow: “Hedge Funds are Selling,” with selling amount up 262.63% QoQ → institutional pressure can cap rallies.
- Analyst narrative: multiple firms cut price targets recently; concerns include consumer pricing pressure and investment cycles.
- Event risk: earnings in ~2 weeks with elevated IV; disappointment risk is priced and can still drive a gap down.
- No supportive proprietary signals today (no AI Stock Picker, no SwingMax entry).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $678.0M, +2.36% YoY → low single-digit growth (not a strong acceleration signal).
Profitability: Net income $75.5M, +31.62% YoY; EPS $0.63, +40.0% YoY → earnings improving faster than revenue (cost control/margins below gross line).
Gross margin: 71.29%, -0.96% YoY → slight pressure at the gross level, which can matter if growth stays soft.
Overall: fundamentals show improving EPS, but top-line growth remains modest—doesn’t strongly support “must-buy now” ahead of earnings.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: predominantly Hold/Neutral with multiple price target cuts (Stifel 65→62 Hold; Cantor 64→55 Neutral; Wedbush 72→66 Neutral; Citi 73→60 Neutral; Jefferies 70→60 Hold). One notable Buy remains (BTIG Buy, PT 81→74).
Wall Street pros: valuation seen as more reasonable; potential for return to sustainable merchandise sales growth; catalysts around Depop marketing and CEO transition.
Wall Street cons: macro/consumer pricing pressure risk into 2026; concerns that incremental investments could limit margin expansion; generally cautious positioning reflected by repeated PT trims.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; insiders are neutral with no significant recent trend.

26 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ETSY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ETSY is 67.71 USD with a low forecast of 52 USD and a high forecast of 80 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

18 Hold

2 Sell

Hold

Current: 54.460

Low

Averages

67.71

High

Current: 54.460

Low

Averages

67.71

High

Stifel

Mark Kelley

Hold

downgrade

$65 -> $62

AI Analysis

2026-01-27

Reason

Stifel

Mark Kelley

Price Target

$65 -> $62

AI Analysis

2026-01-27

downgrade

Hold

Reason

Stifel analyst Mark Kelley lowered the firm's price target on Etsy to $62 from $65 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Third-party data suggests the e-commerce group had a "healthy" Q4 overall, though recent commentary from Amazon suggests there may be incremental pricing pressure on the consumer in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a preview for the e-commerce and consumer app group.

Cantor Fitzgerald

Deepak Mathivanan

Neutral

downgrade

$64 -> $55

2026-01-08

Reason

Cantor Fitzgerald

Deepak Mathivanan

Price Target

$64 -> $55

2026-01-08

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Deepak Mathivanan lowered the firm's price target on Etsy to $55 from $64 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Despite lingering macro concerns, the outlook for Global Internet stocks into 2026 is increasingly positive as AI enters a "Synergy" phase that should drive accelerating revenue growth, improved value capture, and clearer long-term returns on capex, the analyst tells investors in a research note. With valuations still about 20% below medium-term ranges despite 2025 outperformance, the group is positioned to outperform in 2026 amid positive estimate revisions and improving sentiment, Cantor says.

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ETSY Should I Buy

ETSY Should I Buy

Should You Buy ETSY Inc (ETSY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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