Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the stock is in a clear downtrend (bearish moving-average stack + worsening MACD), which often overwhelms “oversold” bounce setups.
Price is sitting right on key support (S1 ~60.17). A small rebound is possible, but a clean break below support opens downside toward ~55.72 (S2).
Options positioning is bullish (very low put/call), but elevated implied volatility suggests the market is pricing big moves—risk is high into the next catalyst window.
Momentum: MACD histogram -1.213 and negatively expanding (bearish momentum is strengthening, not fading).
RSI: RSI_6 = 17.567 (deeply oversold), which can support a short-term bounce, but oversold can persist in strong downtrends.
Levels: Current ~60.38 is just above S1 60.166 (near-term “line in the sand”); below that, next support S2 ~55.722. Upside resistance starts around Pivot ~67.359, then R1 ~74.552.
Pattern-based odds provided: modeled 70% chance of modest gains (+1.01% next day / +2.33% next week / +4.4% next month), but this conflicts with the current weakening momentum indicators—treat as “possible bounce,” not a trend reversal.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Skews bullish (puts are light vs calls on both open interest and volume).
Activity: Today’s option volume is far below recent averages (todays_volume 424 vs 5d avg ~1945 / 10d avg ~1537), so the bullish skew is not backed by heavy participation today.
Volatility: 30D IV ~69.42 vs historical vol ~45.93 (IV is elevated); IV percentile ~81 suggests options are expensive and the market expects larger swings.
Takeaway: Options market leans bullish, but high IV + low volume today suggests “priced-in movement” rather than strong conviction buying pressure.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
near support increases odds of a reflex rebound.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Downtrend is intact and bearish momentum is still accelerating (MACD histogram getting more negative).
Multiple/valuation compression and macro caution cited repeatedly by analysts as a headwind for enterprise software.
Prior concerns flagged by the Street: cloud growth variability and fear of AI “disintermediation” pressuring software names.
No supportive news flow in the last week to catalyze a reversal.
If ~60 support fails, technical vacuum toward ~55.7 increases near-term downside risk.
Overall: Fundamentals are improving, but not yet showing clear profitability—market may continue valuing the name on growth durability and cloud momentum.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Ratings largely remain positive (Buy/Overweight/Outperform), but price targets have been cut across the board from late 2025 through Jan 2026.
What the cuts imply: Wall Street is generally saying “good company, tougher tape” — multiple compression + macro uncertainty + need for clearer AI-driven re-acceleration.
Pros (Street view): improving pipeline/visibility, traction with GenAI cohort, large deal momentum, raised guidance cited previously.
Cons (Street view): decelerating growth components in parts of the model, variability in cloud/seasonality, and ongoing narrative risk around AI impacting traditional software value capture.
Notable: No recent politician/congress trading signals available; hedge funds/insiders show neutral recent activity.
Wall Street analysts forecast ESTC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ESTC is 101.14 USD with a low forecast of 75 USD and a high forecast of 130 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
26 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ESTC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ESTC is 101.14 USD with a low forecast of 75 USD and a high forecast of 130 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Buy
10 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 57.160
Low
75
Averages
101.14
High
130
Current: 57.160
Low
75
Averages
101.14
High
130
Rosenblatt
Rosenblatt
Buy
downgrade
$130 -> $110
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
Reason
Rosenblatt
Rosenblatt
Price Target
$130 -> $110
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Rosenblatt lowered the firm's price target on Elastic to $110 from $130 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm sees the company reported an inline Q4 report. It cites comparable multiple compression and ongoing macro concerns impacting enterprise software for the target cut.
Jefferies
Brent Thill
Buy
downgrade
$105 -> $95
2026-01-05
Reason
Jefferies
Brent Thill
Price Target
$105 -> $95
2026-01-05
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Jefferies analyst Brent Thill lowered the firm's price target on Elastic to $95 from $105 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm believes 2026 will be "another year of gradual AI monetization," but thinks more meaningful growth contribution and acceleration are needed to ease AI disintermediation fears, requiring more selectivity, the analyst tells investors in an outlook note on the software group. "While we remain confident that value will ultimately accrue to the software layer, investors may need to stay patient" with sector valuation back at historical average, the analyst added.
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