Should I Buy ESTA? ESTA 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Establishment Labs Holdings Inc (ESTA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

68.790

1 Day change

3.66%

52 Week Range

78.240

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: near-term edge looks mixed-to-negative (weak day, momentum cooling, bearish short-term pattern stats).
Price is sitting near the pivot/support zone (~68.37). A bounce is possible, but odds favor additional downside over the next week/month per the provided pattern study.
If you must act immediately: this is more of a tactical “support bounce attempt” than a high-conviction buy; conviction improves only on a clean reclaim of ~72.54 (R1) with follow-through.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Medium-term structure is still bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but today’s -5.84% drop suggests a short-term shakeout.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.546) but positively contracting → upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
RSI(6)=51.3 (neutral) → no oversold “snapback” signal yet.
Key levels: Pivot 68.37 is the immediate line in the sand; below it, support is ~64.19 (S1). Upside resistance is ~72.54 (R1), then ~75.12 (R2).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: entry signal triggered on 2026-01-21; price change since signal is only +0.77% → the signal hasn’t produced meaningful follow-through yet, and today’s sharp down move weakens the “strong buy” case.
Pattern-based outlook (provided): ~60% chance of +2.1% next day, but -6.6% next week and -8.5% next month → short-term bounce potential, but unfavorable follow-through expectations.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Open interest put/call ratio at 1.13 leans cautious/defensive (more puts than calls outstanding).
Flow today: Put volume is 0 vs call volume 37 → today’s tape is call-only, but on very small volume.
Volatility: 30D IV ~65 with IV percentile ~23.9 (IV rank ~12.1) → options pricing is relatively cheap vs its own history, suggesting the market is not pricing a major near-term shock.
Activity: Today’s volume is ~4.86x the 30D average (from the dataset), but absolute contracts are still low, so sentiment inference is limited.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Regulatory/market expansion setup: FDA label expansion application for Motiva into breast reconstruction is a meaningful catalyst pathway referenced by multiple analysts.
- Commercial traction: disclosed >60,000 Motiva implants sold in the U.S. since Oct 2024 launch (supports continued revenue growth narrative).
- Next major event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-03-05 (pre-market) could be a catalyst if they show improving profitability/US adoption momentum.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Short-term technical damage: sharp -5.84% regular-session drop with cooling momentum raises the probability of retesting lower supports (64.19).
- Institutional behavior: Hedge funds are selling; selling amount up ~348.78% over the last quarter (not supportive for near-term price).
- No fresh news this week to counterbalance the selloff or reset sentiment.
- Short-horizon stats are unfavorable: the provided pattern study points to negative week/month returns despite a possible next-day bounce.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Growth: Revenue $53.78M, +33.70% YoY (strong top-line momentum).
Profitability: Net income - $11.15M (more negative YoY), EPS -0.38 (worse YoY) → growth is strong, but losses widened.
Efficiency: Gross margin 70.09%, up +9.64% YoY → strong improvement in unit economics, but not yet translating into bottom-line profitability.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Street tone has been improving: multiple firms raised price targets through Nov–Dec 2025 (examples: Needham to $84, Canaccord to $85, Mizuho to $90, BTIG to $86, JPMorgan to $71; Citi raised to $75 but stays Neutral).
Pros (bull case): expanding US adoption + potential FDA label expansion into reconstruction, multi-year double-digit growth narrative, and improving gross margin.
Cons (bear case): still loss-making with EPS trending worse YoY in the latest quarter, and today’s price action/hedge-fund selling suggests near-term sponsorship is weak.
Influential trading check: Insiders are neutral (no significant recent trend); no recent Congress trading data available.

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ESTA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ESTA is 82.88 USD with a low forecast of 75 USD and a high forecast of 90 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

7 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 66.360

Low

Averages

82.88

High

Current: 66.360

Low

Averages

82.88

High

Mizuho

maintain

AI Analysis

2025-12-31

Reason

Mizuho

Price Target

AI Analysis

2025-12-31

maintain

Reason

Mizuho reiterates Establishment Labs as a top pick for 2026 after the company submitted its application for an FDA label expansion of the breast reconstruction indication for Motiva. Establishment also disclosed it has sold more than 60,000 Motiva implants in the U.S. since the October 2024 launch, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho sees the update as bullish for the company's Q4 report and 2026 results.

BTIG

Sam Eiber

Buy

maintain

$81 -> $86

2025-12-31

Reason

BTIG

Sam Eiber

Price Target

$81 -> $86

2025-12-31

maintain

Buy

Reason

BTIG analyst Sam Eiber raised the firm's price target on Establishment Labs to $86 from $81 after applying the 9-times multiple on the firm's rolled forward 12-24 month revenue estimates. BTIG keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Earlier this week, Establishment Labs announced that it submitted Motiva to the FDA for a label expansion into primary and revision breast reconstruction.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for ESTA

Unlock Now

ESTA Should I Buy

ESTA Should I Buy

Should You Buy Establishment Labs Holdings Inc (ESTA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch