Should I Buy ESAB? ESAB 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy ESAB Corp (ESAB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

134.050

1 Day change

4.81%

52 Week Range

135.840

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now after an ~8.4% regular-session pop that pushed price above R1 (126.55) and close to R2 (130.82), increasing near-term pullback risk.
Trend is bullish, but momentum is getting stretched (RSI6 ~69) and options flow is slightly defensive (volume put/call > 1), suggesting upside may be limited immediately.
Acquisition of Eddyfi is strategically positive, yet near-term concerns (Q4 miss, leverage, acceleration required in 2026 guidance) can cap follow-through.
With no Intellectia buy signals today and the stock extended into resistance, the best decision for an impatient buyer is hold / do not chase at this level.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: Strong uptrend confirmed by moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200).
Momentum: MACD histogram positive and expanding (bullish continuation), but RSI_6 at ~69 is near overbought, consistent with “extended” conditions after today’s surge.
Levels: Pivot 119.63 is key support; immediate resistance zone is R2 ~130.82 after clearing R1 ~126.55.
Pattern-based forward look: Similar-pattern stats imply modest upside next week (+3.56%) but negative skew next month (-5.49%), aligning with a likely near-term digestion/pullback.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Open Interest P/C ~0.98 is roughly balanced (not strongly bullish or bearish).
Flow: Volume P/C ~1.33 indicates puts led calls today (more defensive near-term sentiment) even as price jumped.
Volatility: 30D IV 36.64 vs HV 30.39; IV percentile 83.27 suggests options are pricing elevated event/risk premium (often seen around deal/guidance/earnings periods).
Activity: Today’s volume is light in absolute terms (7 total) but elevated vs its own recent average (140%), so sentiment read is meaningful but not high-conviction.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Eddyfi acquisition ($1.45B) expands ESAB’s portfolio into inspection/monitoring and increases TAM by ~ $5B, strengthening long-term strategic positioning (notably aerospace/defense angle).
- Company expects Eddyfi to contribute ~ $270M revenue and ~$80M adj. EBITDA by 2026 with synergy potential to ~$100M.
- Hedge fund trend is strongly positive: “Hedge Funds are Buying,” with reported buying amount up sharply over the last quarter.
- Technical trend remains bullish (MA structure + positive MACD), supportive for medium-term holders if pullbacks occur.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Deal increases leverage/complexity near-term; JPMorgan specifically flagged “high leverage” and potential for ESAB to lag industrial peers in the near term.
- Q4 miss and FY2026 guidance implies notable acceleration after Q1, raising execution risk.
- Stock is extended after a sharp one-day move and is approaching a defined resistance area (R2 ~130.82), increasing odds of a near-term retracement.
- Next major event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-03-02 (pre-market) can introduce gap risk and keep IV elevated.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $727.85M, +8.11% YoY (top-line growth remains solid).
Profitability: Net income -19.82% YoY to $54.72M; EPS -20.54% YoY to $0.89 (earnings contraction despite revenue growth).
Margins: Gross margin 37%, down ~1.86% YoY, indicating pressure from mix/costs/price-volume dynamics.
Overall: Growth is present, but the quarter shows margin/earnings deterioration—important given the added leverage from the Eddyfi deal.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent tone is still broadly constructive (Buy/Outperform/Overweight maintained), but targets show mixed adjustments around the deal/Q4 miss.
JPMorgan: Overweight maintained, but PT cut to $130 from $138; cites Q4 miss, demanding 2026 ramp, and high leverage as near-term headwinds.
Roth Capital: Buy maintained, PT cut to $146 from $150; sees Eddyfi as differentiating with long runway and attractive returns.
Oppenheimer: Outperform, PT raised to $148 from $142; views recent growth/margin worries as transient.
Stifel: Buy, PT nudged higher (to $144) and previously raised to $143; expects improved volume dynamics into 2026.
Wall Street “pros vs cons”: Pros = strategic expansion + longer runway + continued top-line growth; Cons = leverage + near-term integration/execution + margin pressure and guidance skepticism.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ESAB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ESAB is 144.8 USD with a low forecast of 140 USD and a high forecast of 150 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 127.900

Low

140

Averages

144.8

High

150

Current: 127.900

Low

140

Averages

144.8

High

150

JPMorgan

Overweight

maintain

$138 -> $130

AI Analysis

2026-02-03

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$138 -> $130

AI Analysis

2026-02-03

maintain

Overweight

Reason

JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on ESAB to $130 from $138 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares after the company announced the acquisition of Eddyfi Technologies. The deal is "strategically sound," but ESAB share performance may lag its industrial peers near-term due to the Q4 miss, fiscal 2026 guidance that would require notable acceleration post Q1, and its high leverage, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Roth Capital

Buy

downgrade

$150 -> $146

2026-02-03

Reason

Roth Capital

Price Target

$150 -> $146

2026-02-03

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Roth Capital lowered the firm's price target on ESAB to $146 from $150 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The addition of Eddyfi adds a key component to ESAB's end-to-end solution portfolio for the global manufacturing complex and further differentiates ESAB from its competition, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The inspection and monitoring segment is a niche in the manufacturing space that provides ESAB with a long runway to deploy capital at very attractive returns, the firm adds.

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ESAB Should I Buy

ESAB Should I Buy

Should You Buy ESAB Corp (ESAB) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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