Should I Buy ERAS? ERAS 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Erasca Inc (ERAS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

12.290

1 Day change

3.45%

52 Week Range

12.470

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the stock is technically stretched (RSI extremely overbought) and momentum is starting to fade (MACD histogram negative and worsening), which raises near-term pullback risk after a strong move.
Medium-term setup remains constructive (bullish moving-average stack; strong analyst target raises tied to early clinical signal), so this is better treated as a hold/chase-avoid level rather than a fresh buy.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), consistent with an uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.00979 below zero and negatively expanding → upside momentum is cooling despite the uptrend.
RSI: RSI_6 = 81.81 → strongly overbought; historically increases odds of a near-term dip/consolidation.
Levels: Post-market 11.24 is above R1 (11.172) and below R2 (11.726); price is pressing resistance. Key pivot support ~10.274 (then S1 9.376).
Quant pattern read-through: Similar-pattern stats imply modest edge over the next month (~+2.2%) but flat/slightly negative near-term (next week ~-0.12%).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Very low put/call ratios (OI 0.17; volume 0.06) indicate call-heavy positioning and bullish/speculative sentiment.
Activity: Today’s option volume 816 is ~26.13x the 30-day average → unusually high attention/positioning.
Volatility: 30D IV ~111.99 vs historical vol ~139.98; IV percentile 6.77 (IV rank 5.29) → options are relatively cheap vs recent history, even as the stock is moving.
Takeaway: Options market is optimistic, but the equity is short-term overbought—sentiment is hot while technicals are stretched.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Analyst catalyst cycle: Multiple large price-target raises in late Jan 2026 tied to early ERAS-0015 clinical look (partial responses) and updated modeling of pipeline odds.
- Pipeline focus: RAS inhibitor portfolio positioned for proof-of-concept readouts in 2026 (key driver for biotech re-rating).
- Financing mentioned by Guggenheim reduces near-term funding overhang (supports runway sentiment).
- Options flow: Call-skewed positioning and heavy volume suggests traders are leaning bullish into upcoming catalysts.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Technical downside risk is elevated at current levels: RSI extremely overbought and MACD momentum weakening → higher probability of a pullback from resistance.
- No fresh news in the last week → fewer immediate external catalysts to justify continued straight-line upside.
- Biotech execution risk remains high: pipeline is early and Morgan Stanley notes it is still early despite promising signals.
- Institutional/insider flow: Hedge funds and insiders are reported neutral (no strong confirmation buying trend).
- Politics: No recent congress trading data available (no signal from that channel).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 0 (no product revenue; typical clinical-stage biotech profile).
Net income: -$30.612M (worsened ~-1.88% YoY) → losses persist and cash burn remains the core financial narrative.
EPS: -0.11 (reported as flat in the snapshot).
Overall: Fundamentals are driven by clinical progress/financing rather than operating revenue growth.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend is sharply improving: a cluster of upward revisions in Jan 2026 (Guggenheim $12 Buy; Mizuho $16 Outperform; Morgan Stanley up to $10 Equal Weight; Piper to $11 Overweight).
Wall Street pros: Bull case centers on differentiated RAS-targeted pipeline and early response signals with 2026 proof-of-concept potential.
Wall Street cons: At least one bearish stance remains (BofA Underperform historically low PT), and even neutral analysts emphasize the data are still early and not yet de-risked.
Net view: Street sentiment has turned meaningfully more constructive on catalysts, but the stock price is now extended short-term.

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ERAS stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ERAS is 5.5 USD with a low forecast of 2 USD and a high forecast of 11 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

1 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 11.880

Low

Averages

5.5

High

Current: 11.880

Low

Averages

5.5

High

Guggenheim

Buy

maintain

$5 -> $12

AI Analysis

2026-01-27

Reason

Guggenheim

Price Target

$5 -> $12

AI Analysis

2026-01-27

maintain

Buy

Reason

Guggenheim raised the firm's price target on Erasca to $12 from $5 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after updating the firm's model to reflecting recent updates on ERAS-0015 and ERAS-4001, as well as the recently announced financing. The firm now incorporates 30% odds of success adjusted revenue estimates for ERAS-0015 in second-line and later NSCLC and PDAC and estimates a 2030 commercial launch, the analyst noted.

Mizuho

Joseph Catanzaro

NULL -> Outperform

initiated

$5 -> $16

2026-01-27

Reason

Mizuho

Joseph Catanzaro

Price Target

$5 -> $16

2026-01-27

initiated

NULL -> Outperform

Reason

Mizuho analyst Joseph Catanzaro assumed coverage of Erasca with an Outperform rating and price target of $16, up from $5. The firm says the company's RAS inhibitor portfolio is well positioned to establish proof-of-concept in 2026. ERAS-0015 has opportunity for a wider therapeutic window and a competitive clinical profile, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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ERAS Should I Buy

ERAS Should I Buy

Should You Buy Erasca Inc (ERAS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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