Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: price is pressing near-term resistance (R1 ~4.07) with short-term momentum looking stretched, while fundamentals just weakened sharply YoY.
Upside exists (Street PTs $5.00–$5.30 imply ~24%–32% upside from $4.02) and options positioning is very bullish, but with earnings on 2026-02-10 (after hours), the near-term risk/reward is not attractive for an immediate entry.
Moving averages are converging → trend is not strongly established; likely range/inflection rather than a clean trend.
Probabilistic pattern read: ~50% chance of -1.05% next day, -3.31% next week, but +6.1% next month → near-term chop/down bias before a possible rebound.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning is extremely call-heavy (OI put/call 0.07) and no put volume today (volume put/call 0.0) → sentiment skewed bullish/speculative.
IV 30d ~35.2; IV percentile 78 → options are relatively expensive versus recent history, often seen around uncertainty (earnings proximity) or crowding.
Volume is light in absolute terms (51 contracts), but vs 30-day average it’s elevated (~64.6%), suggesting some fresh attention even if liquidity is still modest.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
Wall Street coverage skewed positive with Buy ratings and $5.00–$5.30 targets, largely anchored on dividend yield sustainability and mature-asset strategy.
Options market sentiment is strongly bullish (very low put/call).
Potential catalyst: upcoming QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-10 (AH) could reset expectations if cash flow/dividend coverage surprises positively.
Medium-term pattern model points to potential +6.1% over the next month (noting near-term weakness first).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
with RSI elevated → unfavorable immediate entry for an impatient buyer (higher chance of pullback).
Financial Performance
2026/Q1 (latest provided):
Revenue $21.29M, -2.78% YoY (slight decline).
Net income $0.742M, -63.36% YoY (sharp drop).
EPS $0.02, -66.67% YoY.
Gross margin 12.41%, -43.18% YoY.
Overall: growth and profitability trends are deteriorating, which makes buying strength near resistance less appealing until results stabilize.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: coverage has become more constructive overall despite one cautious cut.
2025-11-14 Northland: Market Perform; PT lowered $4.50 → $4.00 (commodity-price caution, though Q1 was “solid”).
2025-12-04 Roth Capital: Reinstated Buy, PT $5.00 (diversified production, mature-asset acquisitions, return of capital; dividend yield viewed as sustainable).
2025-12-23 Freedom Capital: Initiated Buy, PT $5.30 (expects oil recovery + higher U.S. gas demand; highlights ~12%+ yield).
Wall Street pros: high yield/return of capital narrative; acquisition strategy in mature assets; upside to targets.
Wall Street cons: sensitivity to benchmark commodity prices; at least one firm still sits at Market Perform with a $4 PT; fundamentals in the latest quarter weakened materially YoY.
Wall Street analysts forecast EPM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EPM is 4.5 USD with a low forecast of 4 USD and a high forecast of 5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast EPM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EPM is 4.5 USD with a low forecast of 4 USD and a high forecast of 5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 3.960
Low
4
Averages
4.5
High
5
Current: 3.960
Low
4
Averages
4.5
High
5
Freedom Capital
NULL
to
Buy
initiated
$5.30
AI Analysis
2025-12-23
Reason
Freedom Capital
Price Target
$5.30
AI Analysis
2025-12-23
initiated
NULL
to
Buy
Reason
Freedom Capital initiated coverage of Evolution Petroleum with a Buy rating and $5.30 price target. The firm expects a recovery in oil prices and sees an increase in U.S. natural gas demand. Evolution's yield is 12.8% per annum based on the current stock price, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Roth Capital
Nick Pope
initiated
$5
2025-12-04
Reason
Roth Capital
Nick Pope
Price Target
$5
2025-12-04
initiated
Reason
Roth Capital analyst Nick Pope reinstated coverage of Evolution Petroleum with a Buy rating and $5 price target. The firm says the company's "diversified" production mix, focus on acquiring mature assets with lower declines, and its "healthy" return of capital provide a platform for continued growth. Roth believes Evolution's annualized dividend yield of 12.2% is sustainable and covered by its free cash flow.
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