Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is sitting on support but the trend/momentum is still bearish (negative, expanding MACD), so downside follow-through is still likely.
Oversold RSI (~17.8) increases odds of a short-term bounce, but without an Intellectia signal and with bearish pattern-probabilities, the risk/reward is not attractive for immediate buying.
Best stance today: HOLD/avoid new longs until momentum stabilizes or a clear reversal appears; reassess into earnings (2026-02-19 pre-market).
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram -4.054 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum is strengthening (downtrend still in control).
RSI: RSI_6 at 17.811 → deeply oversold; near-term bounce is possible, but oversold can persist in strong downtrends.
Moving averages: Converging MAs → consolidation/transition, but not yet a confirmed reversal.
Key levels: Price 183.87 is essentially on S1 support 182.923; a clean break below opens room toward S2 171.407. Upside reclaim levels: pivot 201.565, then R1 220.207.
Short-horizon probabilistic trend: Similar-pattern study implies a bearish skew (40% chance of -1.94% next day; -0.78% next week; -0.38% next month).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment via positioning: Put/Call OI ratio 0.65 → more calls than puts outstanding (mildly bullish longer positioning).
Trading flow: Put/Call volume ratio 0.9 → near-neutral flow (not an aggressive dip-buying signal).
Volatility: 30D IV 66.07 vs HV 53.89 and IV percentile 86.85 → options are pricing elevated move risk (consistent with event risk/earnings soon).
Activity: Today volume 112 vs 10D avg 145 (not a spike), but open interest level looks healthy (todays OI 5743; ~114% vs OI avg) → positioning exists, but today’s flow isn’t screaming “bottom”.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
Reputational/competitive strength: Recognized as an 'Exceptional Performer' and ranked #1 in Application Services & General Satisfaction in Whitelane’s 2025/2026 European IT Sourcing Study (supports deal momentum narrative).
Potential fundamental catalyst ahead: Next earnings on 2026-02-19 (pre-market) could reset expectations if margins stabilize and GenAI/services demand shows acceleration.
Street backdrop improving: Multiple firms recently raised price targets, indicating improving confidence into 2026 IT services demand.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Elevated IV: Market is pricing large swings; if earnings/news disappoint, the move can be sharp.
Profitability: Net income $106.8M, -21.66% YoY; EPS 1.91, -19.41% YoY → growth is not translating to bottom-line.
Margins: Gross margin 27.29%, down materially YoY (pressure on unit economics/cost structure).
Read-through: Business is growing, but quality of growth (margins/earnings) weakened—needs evidence of operating leverage to justify a durable rebound.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets have been raised across several firms (JPMorgan to $215, Mizuho to $228, TD Cowen to $243, Citi to $225; Truist initiated at $220).
Rating mix: Generally constructive (Buy/Overweight/Outperform present), but not unanimous—Citi remains Neutral and Truist is Hold, implying confidence is improving but still tempered.
Wall Street pros: Improving IT spend setup for 2026, strong pipeline commentary, AI/GenAI scaling potential, and Q3 execution cited positively.
Wall Street cons: Growth still described as subdued/in-transition; expectations for 2026 acceleration are rising after rallies, increasing risk of disappointment.
Wall Street analysts forecast EPAM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EPAM is 214.7 USD with a low forecast of 170 USD and a high forecast of 246 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast EPAM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EPAM is 214.7 USD with a low forecast of 170 USD and a high forecast of 246 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 177.470
Low
170
Averages
214.7
High
246
Current: 177.470
Low
170
Averages
214.7
High
246
Citi
Bryan Keane
Neutral
maintain
$170 -> $225
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
Reason
Citi
Bryan Keane
Price Target
$170 -> $225
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Citi analyst Bryan Keane raised the firm's price target on Epam Systems to $225 from $170 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm sees the company modestly improving its organic growth in fiscal 2026. However expectations are rising for accelerating growth in 2026 in the IT services sector following the recent share rallies, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
TD Cowen
Bryan Bergin
Buy
upgrade
$212 -> $243
2026-01-09
Reason
TD Cowen
Bryan Bergin
Price Target
$212 -> $243
2026-01-09
upgrade
Buy
Reason
TD Cowen analyst Bryan Bergin raised the firm's price target on Epam Systems to $243 from $212 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is "constructive" on services sector setup for 2026, anticipating gradual improvement in enterprise IT spend at a time when average valuations remain discounted.
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