Should I Buy EP? EP 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Empire Petroleum Corp (EP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

3.570

1 Day change

17.82%

52 Week Range

6.900

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: the trend is still technically bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and price is below the pivot (3.181), limiting immediate upside.
Near-term dilution/price gravity risk: the rights offering subscription price ($2.99) sits just below the current price (3.08), which can cap rallies and pull price toward that level.
With no Intellectia buy signals today (AI Stock Picker / SwingMax), there isn’t a strong tactical edge for an immediate entry.
Best stance for an impatient buyer right now: avoid initiating a new position; only reconsider if EP clears 3.181 and holds above it with momentum.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Moving Averages: Bearish structure (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) indicates the broader downtrend is still intact.
Momentum: MACD histogram slightly positive (0.00017) and expanding, suggesting a nascent bounce attempt, but not yet a confirmed trend reversal.
RSI: RSI_6 = 54.789 (neutral), showing no strong overbought/oversold signal.
Levels:
- Pivot: 3.181 (current 3.08 is below pivot = mild bearish)
- Support: S1 2.799, then S2 2.563
- Resistance: R1 3.563, then R2 3.799
Pattern-based forward bias (similar candlesticks): ~60% chance of -0.91% next day; +0.65% next week; +3.51% next month (near-term choppy/down, modest longer bounce odds).

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Positive Catalysts

- Rights offering intended to raise ~$6M to enhance/develop production assets across multiple states (potential operational uplift if deployed efficiently).
- Largest shareholder indicated intent to participate (supportive signal vs. a fully unsupported raise).
- Upcoming earnings: 2026-02-16 after hours (possible event-driven move if results surprise positively).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Rights offering at $2.99 introduces dilution and can act as an anchor near current trading levels (current 3.08).
- Technical trend remains bearish (moving averages stacked bearishly), increasing risk that rallies fail below resistance.
- Recent profitability and margin quality are weak (gross margin deterioration and net loss), raising execution risk into earnings.
- No notable hedge fund/insider accumulation trends reported recently (sentiment not strongly supportive).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $9.388M, down -13.93% YoY (top-line contraction).
Net income: -$3.844M (still a loss), improved 5.62% YoY (improvement, but not profitability).
EPS: -0.11, down -8.33% YoY (per-share earnings worsened).
Gross margin: 1.11, down -79.60% YoY (major margin compression; quality of earnings/operations is a key concern).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating changes or price target updates were provided in the dataset.
Wall Street pro/con view from available data (limited):
- Pros: capital raise earmarked for production assets; largest shareholder participation.
- Cons: dilution risk near $2.99, deteriorating revenue/margins, and bearish technical trend; upcoming earnings could expose weak fundamentals.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast EP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EP is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy

Hold

Sell

Current: 3.030

Low

Averages

High