Should I Buy ELF? ELF 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy elf Beauty Inc (ELF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

82.090

1 Day change

6.80%

52 Week Range

150.990

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and price is sitting just below the pivot (~88.84), implying weak near-term momentum.
Options positioning is mildly bullish (put/call ratios < 1), but elevated implied volatility suggests the market is pricing in meaningful near-term movement (not a clean, low-risk entry).
Fundamentals show revenue growth but sharp profit/EPS compression in the latest reported quarter, which keeps downside risk alive until margin/earnings quality improves.
Intellectia signals do not provide a strong “must-buy today” trigger (no AI Stock Picker or SwingMax signal).

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bearish moving-average stack (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) = prevailing downtrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.535 (below 0) but negatively contracting, hinting selling pressure is easing (early stabilization, not a confirmed reversal).
RSI (6): 52.1 = neutral; no oversold “snap-back” signal.
Levels: Pivot 88.84 (price 88.03 is slightly below). Support S1 83.52 then S2 80.24; resistance R1 94.16 then R2 97.44.
Pattern-based odds: model suggests +2.83% next day but -6.04% next week and -5.04% next month—short pop possible, but medium-term bias still negative.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put/call ratios below 1 (OI 0.73; volume 0.56) lean bullish (more call interest than puts).
Volatility: IV_30d 79.71 vs historical vol 37.88 (IV much higher) with IV rank ~62 → options are relatively expensive, reflecting heightened event/uncertainty pricing.
Activity: Today’s option volume (3,784) is ~54% of 30-day average; open interest 79,508 is ~83% of its 30-day average → no clear surge in positioning today.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

with partnerships (e.g., Duolingo) may drive demand/engagement.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

showed severe earnings deterioration despite revenue growth (net income and EPS down ~84% YoY) and gross margin down ~2.3% YoY.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2026/Q2.
Revenue: $343.94M, +14.24% YoY (top-line growth remains healthy).
Profitability: Net income $3.00M, -84.25% YoY; EPS $0.05, -84.85% YoY (sharp compression).
Margin: Gross margin 69.45%, -2.32% YoY (pressure vs prior year, consistent with profit decline).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating/target trend: After the post-Q2 selloff and softer guidance, many firms cut targets (e.g., Goldman, Baird, JPM, BofA), but most maintained bullish stances (Buy/Overweight/Outperform).
More recent updates have turned more constructive: Citi initiated Buy with $110 (sees share gains + rhode distribution runway); TD Cowen reiterated Buy and lifted target to $110; Deutsche Bank raised target to $92 but remains Hold; Piper stayed Neutral and cut to $85.
Wall Street “pros”: share gains, strong brand resonance, distribution/international runway, potential upside if shipment timing normalizes.
Wall Street “cons”: near-term headwinds and competitive intensity, margin/earnings volatility, and a market that has been revising expectations downward.

13 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ELF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ELF is 117.5 USD with a low forecast of 85 USD and a high forecast of 136 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

10 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 76.860

Low

Averages

117.5

High

136

Current: 76.860

Low

Averages

117.5

High

136

Citi

Buy

maintain

$110 -> $115

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

Reason

Citi

Price Target

$110 -> $115

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

maintain

Buy

Reason

Citi raised the firm's price target on Elf Beauty to $115 from $110 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm cites the company's fiscal Q3 beat for the target boost.

Baird

Outperform -> Outperform

downgrade

$125 -> $115

2026-02-05

New

Reason

Baird

Price Target

$125 -> $115

2026-02-05

New

downgrade

Outperform -> Outperform

Reason

Baird lowered the firm's price target on Elf Beauty to $115 from $125 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following its Q3 beat and raise results.

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ELF Should I Buy

ELF Should I Buy

Should You Buy elf Beauty Inc (ELF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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