Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: near-term pattern stats skew bearish (next week/month downside probabilities) and technicals remain weak below the pivot.
Better risk/reward appears after a clear rebound holds above 13.26 (pivot) or a confirmed base above ~12.59 support; at the current price (12.81) the setup is still “falling/weak bounce” rather than “trend reversal.”
Income appeal (high yield narrative) and improving Q3’25 profitability are positives, but they’re not currently translating into a strong short-term price setup.
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: Price (~12.805) is below the pivot (13.259), suggesting the stock is still trading in a weaker zone.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.131 (below zero) but negatively contracting, which hints selling pressure is easing, not reversed.
RSI(6): 30.752, near oversold territory; this can support a bounce, but it’s not a confirmed buy signal on its own.
Moving averages: Converging MAs = consolidation/indecision; not a clean uptrend.
Key levels: Support 12.588 (S1) then 12.174 (S2); Resistance 13.259 (pivot) then 13.929 (R1).
Pattern-based forward look: Similar-candlestick analysis implies ~-5.65% next week and -8.92% next month bias (bearish near-term edge).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Open interest put/call 0.44 = calls outweigh puts in OI (more bullish longer-dated positioning).
Flow today: Put/call volume 2.17 = puts dominated today’s trading flow (more cautious/defensive near-term sentiment), though absolute volume is small (19 contracts).
Volatility: 30D IV 27.91 vs historical vol 20.77 = options pricing implies elevated expected moves.
IV percentile 69.72 suggests options are relatively pricey vs recent history (market is paying up for hedges/speculation).
No Intellectia proprietary options signal present to override the mixed sentiment.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
1
Positive Catalysts
can simplify capital structure and potentially reduce preferred-related costs over time.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Near-term technical posture is still weak (below pivot; MACD negative), and pattern-based odds lean to further downside over 1-week/1-month horizons.
Options tape today leans defensive (put volume dominating), implying traders are still hedging/positioning for downside into upcoming events.
Earnings risk: With earnings on 2026-02-26, any miss or cautious commentary can pressure a high-yield financial.
No confirming “strong buy” trigger from Intellectia signals (no AI Stock Picker / no SwingMax).
Net income: $29.504M, +82.40% YoY (strong profitability improvement).
EPS: $0.29, +61.11% YoY (solid earnings growth).
Gross margin: 80.68%, -8.09% YoY (margin compression is a watch item despite higher earnings).
Trading flows: Hedge funds neutral (no major quarterly trend); insiders neutral (no major monthly trend).
Politicians/Congress: No recent congress trading data available (no visible political buying/selling catalyst).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Most recent datapoint: [2025-12-23] Piper Sandler maintained Overweight (noted a price target cut on Ellington Credit in the note) while arguing default fears are overstated and fundamentals/loan-to-value cushions look solid.
Wall Street pro view (pros): constructive stance on credit fundamentals; supportive of the broader asset manager/credit backdrop.
Wall Street con view (cons): price target cut signals tempered near-term expectations; sector headlines around private credit/default concerns can weigh on sentiment.
Wall Street analysts forecast EFC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EFC is 15 USD with a low forecast of 14.5 USD and a high forecast of 16 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast EFC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EFC is 15 USD with a low forecast of 14.5 USD and a high forecast of 16 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 12.860
Low
14.5
Averages
15
High
16
Current: 12.860
Low
14.5
Averages
15
High
16
Piper Sandler
Overweight
downgrade
$6
AI Analysis
2025-12-23
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$6
AI Analysis
2025-12-23
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Ellington Credit to $6 from $6.50 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares as part of a Q4 preview for the asset management group. Deal activity has begun to recover, but private credit has dominated headlines as investors worry about a potential surge in defaults, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Piper believes the concerns are overstated, saying fundamentals are "solid" with loan- to-value ratios in the 30%-40% range, "providing substantial cushion against losses."
UBS
Neutral
maintain
2025-09-03
Reason
UBS
Price Target
2025-09-03
maintain
Neutral
Reason
UBS raised the firm's price target on Ellington Financial to $13.50 from $12.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for EFC
