Should I Buy EAF? EAF 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy GrafTech International Ltd (EAF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

8.440

1 Day change

-46.21%

52 Week Range

20.320

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now: price (~16.2 pre-market) is above the only cited Street PT ($14) and sits below the key pivot (17.001), with no proprietary “strong buy” signal active.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Options positioning is aggressively call-skewed (bullish speculation), but the setup is dominated by imminent earnings (2026-02-06 pre-market) and very elevated IV, making direction less reliable for an impatient entry.
Best stance based on the provided data: Hold/avoid initiating a fresh long before earnings; reassess after the print.

Technical Analysis

Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.195 (below zero) but negatively contracting → bearish pressure is easing, not flipped bullish yet.
RSI(6) 49.5 → neutral; no clear overbought/oversold edge.
Moving averages: converging → suggests consolidation/range behavior rather than a clean trend.
Levels: Pivot 17.001 is near-term resistance; supports at 15.127 (S1) then 13.969 (S2); resistances 18.874 (R1) and 20.032 (R2).
Pattern-based odds provided: ~40% chance of gains (up to +3.34% next day, +7.69% next week, +7.87% next month) → not a strong statistical edge.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment skew: Extremely call-dominant (Put/Call OI 0.07; Put/Call volume 0.04) → traders are positioned bullish.
Open interest: Calls 2045 vs Puts 139 (total OI today 2184) → strong upside bias.
Volume: Total options volume 111 (calls 107, puts 4); volume is ~91% of 30-day average (not a breakout in activity).
Volatility: 30D IV 122.85 vs historical vol 64.95; IV percentile 79.28 → market pricing a large move (consistent with pre-earnings conditions).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Insider activity: Insiders are Buying, with buying amount up 10733.33% over the last month (strong internal confidence signal).
- Options market positioning is decisively bullish (very low put/call ratios).
- Top-line trend: 2025/Q3 revenue +10.21% YoY.
- Event catalyst: Earnings on 2026-02-06 pre-market could trigger a sharp upside move if results/guide beat expectations.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Earnings risk is immediate (next session pre-market) with EPS estimate shown as (Est: -1.2600) → a miss or weak outlook can pressure the stock quickly.
- Profitability deterioration: Net income and EPS fell YoY; gross margin compression is severe.
- Technical positioning: price is below the 17.001 pivot, so near-term trend is not convincingly bullish.
- Wall Street view: only provided analyst stance is Neutral with PT $14, which is below the current pre-market price (~16.2).
- No recent supportive news flow (no news in the last week), and hedge funds are described as Neutral (no strong institutional momentum signal).
- No recent congress/politician trading data available (no influential “follow-the-money” confirmation).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3
Revenue: $143.998M, +10.21% YoY (growth).
Net Income: -$28.482M, -21.03% YoY (loss widened).
EPS: -1.10, -21.43% YoY (worse profitability per share).
Gross Margin: 7.16%, sharply down YoY (major margin compression; core negative trend despite revenue growth).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating action: [2025-11-19] Citi raised PT to $14 from $10 but maintained Neutral.
Trend summary: PT moved up, but rating did not upgrade (pros see some improvement, but not enough to turn bullish).
Wall Street pros (from the single data point): upward PT revision suggests reduced downside vs prior view.
Wall Street cons: PT below current price and Neutral rating implies limited confidence in near-term upside at current levels.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast EAF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EAF is 16.67 USD with a low forecast of 14 USD and a high forecast of 21 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 15.690

Low

Averages

16.67

High

Current: 15.690

Low

Averages

16.67

High

Citi

Neutral

maintain

$10 -> $14

AI Analysis

2025-11-19

Reason

Citi

Price Target

$10 -> $14

AI Analysis

2025-11-19

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Citi raised the firm's price target on GrafTech to $14 from $10 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

UBS

Andrew Jones

Neutral

downgrade

2025-05-13

Reason

UBS

Andrew Jones

Price Target

2025-05-13

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

UBS analyst Andrew Jones lowered the firm's price target on GrafTech to 80c from $1.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. UBS views GrafTech as well-positioned to benefit from long-term industry tailwinds, though industry and macro headwinds seem likely to weigh on near-term profitability, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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EAF Should I Buy

EAF Should I Buy

Should You Buy GrafTech International Ltd (EAF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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