Should I Buy DXCM? DXCM 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Dexcom Inc (DXCM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

69.970

1 Day change

0.11%

52 Week Range

93.250

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now: price is sitting on key support (~71.06) with sentiment (options + analysts) skewing bullish into a near-term catalyst window.
Setup is tactical (bounce/relief-rally biased): momentum is weak, but the stock is already near a decision level where upside catalysts can matter quickly.
No politician/congress activity flagged recently; insider selling is the main behavioral negative to offset the bullish read.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.268) and worsening (bearish momentum still building).
RSI: 6-day RSI ~36.3 (weak/near-oversold zone), consistent with “selling pressure may be getting stretched,” often supportive of short-term bounces.
Moving averages: converging MAs suggest the trend is compressing—typically a prelude to a larger move; direction currently slightly bearish given MACD.
Levels: Support S1=71.062 (price 71.16 is essentially on support). Next support S2=69.774. Resistance pivot=73.146, then R1=75.229.
Practical read: DXCM is at a clean line-in-the-sand entry area (71-ish). A quick rebound attempt targets 73.1 → 75.2 if support holds.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Open-interest put/call at 0.92 is slightly call-leaning (not fearful).
Flow: Put/call volume at 0.03 is extremely call-dominant (strong short-term bullish speculation).
Volatility: 30D IV 56.74 vs historical vol 25.66 (IV elevated); IV percentile 78 suggests options are pricing a meaningful move (consistent with upcoming earnings).
Activity: Today’s volume is ~164% of 30D average (attention/positioning building).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Product/news: Enhanced Smart Food Logging features in Stelo improves user experience and strengthens the ecosystem narrative.
- Analysts/catalyst timing: Citi placed an “upside 90-day catalyst watch,” with focus on 2026 guidance (upcoming).
- Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-12 (after hours) can re-rate the stock quickly if guidance confirms the “turning the corner” thesis.
- Fundamentals (latest reported): Q3 2025 showed strong growth (revenue +21.6% YoY; EPS +112%).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Momentum/price action: Bearish MACD expansion indicates sellers still in control near-term.
- Insider behavior: Insiders are selling; selling amount increased ~161.8% over the last month (sentiment headwind).
- Legal/governance overhang: Investigation headline (Halper Sadeh) can weigh on sentiment short-term.
- Competitive/operational concerns: Evercore flagged product quality/manufacturing issues and competitive threats potentially disrupting share gains through 2026.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $1.209B, +21.64% YoY (strong top-line acceleration).
Profitability: Net income $283.8M, +110.85% YoY; EPS $0.70, +112.12% YoY (operating leverage evident).
Margins: Gross margin 60.48%, +1.26 YoY (improving efficiency/price-mix).
Overall read: Growth trends are decisively positive, supporting a bullish fundamental backdrop going into the next earnings print.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Trend: Ratings/targets have recently improved, with multiple target raises (Bernstein $86; Mizuho $78; Citi $77) and Morgan Stanley upgrading to Overweight with a $75 target.
Bull case (Street): “Turning the corner” on operational challenges, potential margin tailwinds (e.g., G7 rollout), and a guidance-driven re-rating opportunity.
Bear case (Street): Ongoing execution risk (quality/manufacturing) and competition could cap share gains through 2026 (Evercore In Line, $68).
Net: Wall Street leans constructive overall (more raises/upgrades than downgrades), implying pros outweigh cons at ~71 if execution continues to improve.

23 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast DXCM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DXCM is 84.81 USD with a low forecast of 68 USD and a high forecast of 112 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

19 Buy

3 Hold

1 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 69.890

Low

Averages

84.81

High

112

Current: 69.890

Low

Averages

84.81

High

112

Bernstein

Outperform

maintain

$84 -> $86

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

Reason

Bernstein

Price Target

$84 -> $86

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Bernstein raised the firm's price target on DexCom to $86 from $84 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. After a low point in September 2025, U.S. healthcare stocks have begun to perform better over the past several months, the firm notes. As the market gets more clarity on many of the macro / policy uncertainties that weighed on healthcare stocks during the course of 2025, Bernstein anticipates better days ahead for healthcare stocks in 2026.

Raymond James

Strong Buy

maintain

$260

2025-12-18

Reason

Raymond James

Price Target

$260

2025-12-18

maintain

Strong Buy

Reason

Jabil's (JBL) recent stock weakness does not reflect any negative surprises, as earnings, guidance, and management commentary were in line, and claims that Jabil is losing share at Dexcom (DXCM) are incorrect and is "categorically not happening," Raymond James tells investors in a research note. Near-term headwinds include elevated interest expense, a higher FY27 tax rate, and a temporary AI-related capacity retrofit, but these are well understood by investors and expected to ease as the new North Carolina facility ramps quickly toward full production, the firm adds. Raymond James has a Strong Buy rating and $260 price target on Jabil shares.

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DXCM Should I Buy

DXCM Should I Buy

Should You Buy Dexcom Inc (DXCM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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