Should I Buy DX? DX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Dynex Capital Inc (DX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

14.070

1 Day change

0.43%

52 Week Range

14.930

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now: DX is trading near support (current $14.035 vs S1 $13.843) with improving risk/reward for an impatient buyer.
Sentiment skew is strongly bullish (options put/call ratios extremely low + heavy activity), which often supports near-term upside even if price action has been choppy.
Wall Street view is net-positive (multiple Outperform/Buy ratings with raised targets up to ~$15.25–$16), implying ~9%–14% upside from here.
Key levels to watch immediately: reclaiming the pivot $14.317 improves the setup; first upside test is $14.79 (R1). A clean break below $13.84 weakens the buy case.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/price positioning: Price ($14.035) is below the pivot ($14.317), suggesting the near-term trend is still slightly bearish/weak, but it’s close to support (S1 $13.843).
MACD: Histogram -0.085 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum still in control short-term.
RSI (6): 35.2 → leaning toward oversold-ish/washed-out conditions (not a strong reversal signal by itself, but supports a bounce thesis near support).
Moving averages: Converging MAs → compression phase; often precedes a larger move (direction not guaranteed).
Levels: Resistance at $14.79 (R1) then $15.08 (R2); support at $13.84 (S1) then $13.55 (S2).
Pattern-based forward odds (provided): Indicates a bullish bias: ~0.72% next day, 8.66% next week, 16.67% next month (probabilistic, not certain).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: Put/Call OI ratio 0.22 and volume ratio 0.04 = heavily call-skewed, typically signaling bullish positioning.
Activity: Today’s option volume 234 vs 30D average factor 10.55x = unusually elevated activity.
Open interest: Calls OI 25,258 vs Puts OI 5,571 = strong call dominance; today’s OI metrics show very large relative jump (suggesting fresh positioning).
Volatility: 30D IV 17.28% vs historical vol 19.96% → options are not expensive vs realized; IV has also come down versus 5D/10D averages (21.14/24.36), which is generally supportive for initiating long options or stock exposure.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Macro/policy catalyst referenced by analysts: BTIG highlights potential benefit from government-sponsored buying of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which could tighten agency MBS spreads and lift REIT NAV.
- Analyst targets raised and ratings constructive: Keefe Bruyette raised PT to $15.25 (Outperform); BTIG at $16 (Buy).
- Strong latest quarter growth (reported) supports fundamentals and confidence.
- Options market is decisively bullish (very low put/call ratios + high activity), often supportive for near-term price stabilization or rebound.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Momentum is still bearish: MACD negative and worsening, so price could still drift toward S1/S2 before a sustained bounce.
- No fresh news this week: fewer immediate narrative drivers in the very short term.
- Rate/spread sensitivity: As a mortgage REIT, DX can be pressured by adverse moves in rates, funding costs, or MBS spreads (can quickly impact book value/NAV).
- Market tape is risk-off today (S&P 500 -0.56%), which can cap near-term upside.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4
Revenue: $335.549M, +136.40% YoY.
Net income: $182.598M, +271.42% YoY.
EPS: $1.16, +93.33% YoY.
Gross margin: 60.2%, +41.65% YoY.
Takeaway: Reported growth trends are very strong in the latest quarter, supporting the bullish analyst stance (note: mortgage REIT financials can be influenced by market value moves, but the provided data is clearly positive).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Analysts have been raising price targets and maintaining bullish ratings.
2026-01-29 (Keefe Bruyette): PT raised to $15.25 from $14.50, Outperform maintained.
2026-01-09 (BTIG): Buy, PT $16, citing potential MBS-spread tightening/NAV upside.
2025-12-18 (Keefe Bruyette): PT raised to $14.50 from $14, Outperform maintained.
Wall Street pros: Policy-driven MBS demand + constructive setup for agency MBS REITs + target upside from current price.
Wall Street cons: Thesis depends on spreads/rates cooperating; the stock can react quickly to macro shifts.

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast DX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DX is 15.25 USD with a low forecast of 14.5 USD and a high forecast of 16 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 14.010

Low

14.5

Averages

15.25

High

Current: 14.010

Low

14.5

Averages

15.25

High

Keefe Bruyette

Outperform

maintain

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Price Target

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Dynex Capital to $15.25 from $14.50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

BTIG

maintain

$16

2026-01-09

Reason

BTIG

Price Target

$16

2026-01-09

maintain

Reason

BTIG says Dynex Capital is its favorite stock to immediately benefit from President Trump's directive for the government sponsored enterprises to purchase up to $200B in mortgage-backed securities in an effort to lower mortgage rates. BTIG estimates 8% mark-to-market net asset value upside from agency MBS spreads tightening 20 basis points, which is the move in spreads reflected so far through early Friday. It see similar net asset value changes for the other agency real estate investment trusts, including Annaly Capital (NLY,) AGNC Investment (AGNC), Invesco Mortgage (IVR), Armour Residential REIT (ARR). The firm has a Buy rating on Dynex with a $16 price target.

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DX Should I Buy

DX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Dynex Capital Inc (DX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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