Should I Buy DVAX? DVAX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Dynavax Technologies Corp (DVAX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

15.500

1 Day change

0.06%

52 Week Range

15.730

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now: the stock is trading essentially exactly at the announced acquisition price ($15.50), which caps upside while leaving downside if the deal is delayed/changed/breaks.
Sentiment is net negative (hedge funds and insiders selling), which is typical into a takeout but still weak for a fresh entry.
With no Intellectia buy signal and limited merger-arb spread, the risk/reward is unfavorable for an impatient buyer looking for near-term upside.

Technical Analysis

Price is pinned around $15.50 and sitting near the pivot (15.553), suggesting a range-bound/takeout-anchored tape rather than a trending setup.
MACD histogram is negative (-0.169) but contracting: downside momentum is fading, yet it’s not a clean bullish reversal.
RSI(6) ~59.7: neutral-to-slightly bullish, not overbought.
Key levels: Support S1 15.465 / S2 15.411; Resistance R1 15.641 / R2 15.695. With a $15.50 deal price, these levels mainly define small arbitrage wiggles.
Pattern-based forward odds show modest upside probabilities (next day +1.32%, next week +3.95%, next month +9.46%), but those are likely less relevant under an acquisition “price magnet.”

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open interest put/call ratio = 1.35: positioning skews defensive/bearish (more puts than calls outstanding).
Options volume is extremely light (total volume 3; call volume 0, put volume 3), so sentiment signals from volume are weak/low-confidence.
Today’s open interest is elevated vs its 30-day average (today_vs_open_interest_avg_30_day ~112.59), suggesting positioning is in place, but not actively being traded today.
IV metrics are very low by percentile/rank (IV percentile ~1.99; IV rank ~1.24), consistent with a market expecting limited movement—also typical when a takeout price anchors the stock.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Event-driven: Acquisition agreement with Sanofi at $15.50/share (deal value ~ $2B) provides a clear price anchor and potential path to cash-out at the stated price if it closes.
- Fundamentals (last reported quarter) show strong growth (revenue, earnings, margins), supporting business quality even though the deal now dominates price action.
- Upcoming calendar: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-25 (After Hours).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Upside is capped: stock already trades at the stated takeout price ($15.50), leaving little/no spread for a new buyer.
- Deal risk: any regulatory/financing/timing issues or renegotiation could create meaningful downside from the takeout level.
- Trading trends show distribution: Hedge funds are selling (selling up 122.60% QoQ) and insiders are selling (selling up 283.68% MoM).
- Specific insider action/news: David Novack sold 114,000 shares (~$1.8M), reducing ownership to 63,344 shares (reported 2026-01-30).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $94.876M, +17.67% YoY (solid top-line growth).
Net income: $26.927M, +53.05% YoY (profitability accelerating).
EPS: $0.20, +81.82% YoY (strong earnings leverage).
Gross margin: 84.82%, +1.25% YoY (already high, improving further).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating/price target change data was provided in the dataset, so a recent trend assessment cannot be confirmed from the inputs.
Wall Street-style pros (based on provided info): strong YoY growth in revenue/EPS and a defined takeout price.
Wall Street-style cons (based on provided info): limited upside at the deal price and asymmetric downside if the acquisition does not close as expected.
Congress/influential trading check: No recent congress trading data available.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast DVAX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DVAX is 20.5 USD with a low forecast of 16 USD and a high forecast of 25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 15.490

Low

Averages

20.5

High

Current: 15.490

Low

Averages

20.5

High

Citizens JMP

Roy Buchanan

Outperform

maintain

$31 -> $32

AI Analysis

2025-08-08

Reason

Citizens JMP

Roy Buchanan

Price Target

$31 -> $32

AI Analysis

2025-08-08

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Citizens JMP analyst Roy Buchanan raised the firm's price target on Dynavax to $32 from $31 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Dynavax continues to focus on priorities in HEPLISAV-B, business development, and the pipeline with the board battle behind it, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Goldman Sachs

Paul Choi

Strong Sell

Maintains

$12 → $10

2025-04-17

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Paul Choi

Price Target

$12 → $10

2025-04-17

Maintains

Strong Sell

Reason

DVAX Should I Buy

DVAX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Dynavax Technologies Corp (DVAX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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