Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the trend is decisively bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5, MACD worsening) and price is breaking below near-term support.
Oversold does not equal reversal: RSI_6 ~ 8.9 can produce a sharp bounce, but without a confirming signal it’s more of a tactical trade than a high-conviction entry.
Options positioning is cautious into earnings (very high IV + put-heavy volume), implying the market is bracing for downside/volatility.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -2.29 and negatively expanding → selling pressure is still strengthening.
RSI: RSI_6 at ~8.93 (deeply oversold) → bounce risk is elevated, but this is not a buy signal by itself without confirmation.
Key levels: Current price 117.8 is below S1 ~119.04 (lost support). Next notable support is S2 ~107.51. Pivot resistance overhead at ~137.70 (a long way above current price).
Options Data
Neutral
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Mixed-to-bearish near-term. Open interest put/call 0.96 is roughly neutral, but put/call volume 1.7 shows traders are buying puts more aggressively today.
Volatility pricing: 30D IV ~105.65 with IV percentile ~98 → options are pricing an unusually large move (event risk).
Positioning/flow: Today’s options volume is below the 5D/10D averages (9,843 vs 11,076 / 13,672), suggesting caution rather than strong dip-buying.
Catalyst timing: Elevated IV aligns with upcoming earnings (2026-03-02 after close), implying traders expect a meaningful post-earnings reaction.
Gross margin: 72.47%, -0.60% YoY → slight margin compression but still very high gross margin business model.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend (last ~1 month): price targets have been cut meaningfully by multiple firms (Morgan Stanley 275→245; DA Davidson 205→170; Wells Fargo 185→160), reflecting near-term caution into earnings/user-growth and bookings guidance.
Counterbalance: there are still notable bullish stances (Truist initiated Buy at 245; BofA upgraded to Buy with 250 target, despite lowering from 301).
Wall Street “pros”: strong brand leadership, monetization metrics cited (subscriber retention), product expansion beyond languages, AI as a tailwind.
Wall Street “cons”: concerns about DAU momentum and near-term bookings/guidance, difficulty re-accelerating growth, and AI disintermediation risk.
Flows/behavior: Hedge funds and insiders are reported Neutral (no strong accumulation/distribution signal). No recent congress trading data available.
Wall Street analysts forecast DUOL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DUOL is 260.36 USD with a low forecast of 160 USD and a high forecast of 330 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
17 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast DUOL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DUOL is 260.36 USD with a low forecast of 160 USD and a high forecast of 330 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 114.340
Low
160
Averages
260.36
High
330
Current: 114.340
Low
160
Averages
260.36
High
330
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
downgrade
$275 -> $245
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
New
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$275 -> $245
AI Analysis
2026-02-03
New
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Duolingo to $245 from $275 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is "tactically cautious" on the upcoming earnings report as it believes increased prioritization of user growth likely leads initial FY26 bookings guidance below Street estimates. However, DAU growth has already shown signs of stabilization while efforts to improve user growth should drive improved acquisition and retention, the analyst added in a Q4 preview.
DA Davidson
Neutral
downgrade
$205 -> $170
2026-01-27
Reason
DA Davidson
Price Target
$205 -> $170
2026-01-27
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
DA Davidson lowered the firm's price target on Duolingo to $170 from $205 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. In-house data which tracks over 170K existing Duolingo users suggests that January had the strongest m/m increase since the firm began tracking figures in July, though extrapolating January's strength for all of Q1 shows that implied Daily Active Users come in about 4% below the current consensus estimates, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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