Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: the setup is extended/overbought after a post-earnings push and price is approaching near-term resistance.
Fundamentals and Street tone are constructive (order strength, bookings, multiple price-target raises), but near-term risk/reward is skewed toward a pullback rather than immediate upside.
Options positioning is bullish (calls favored), yet overall option activity is light versus normal, which reduces the strength of the sentiment signal.
Political flow is a clear negative: recent Congress activity shows only sales and no purchases.
Best action now: HOLD / wait for a dip closer to support (~215 or ~208) before considering a new entry; at 218 the entry is less attractive.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) with positive momentum; MACD histogram is above zero and expanding.
Overbought/extension: RSI(6) ~78 indicates the stock is stretched short-term, increasing pullback risk.
Levels: Price 218.04 is above R1 (215.803) and below R2 (220.607). This is a “late breakout” zone where upside is capped by nearby resistance.
Support to watch: 215.8 (former resistance), then pivot ~208.0; a break below pivot would weaken the immediate bullish setup.
Quant pattern read-through: Similar-pattern stats imply higher near-term chop (next week model bias -2.99%), reinforcing “not ideal to chase today.”
Participation: Today’s option volume (122) is low versus the 5D/10D averages (289/469) and only ~22.6% of the 30-day average—sentiment is positive but not strongly “confirmed” by activity.
Volatility: 30D IV ~24.6 vs historical vol ~22.7 (small premium). IV percentile ~40 and IV rank ~5 suggest IV is not elevated—options aren’t pricing major event risk right now.
Positioning: Total OI ~10,864 with calls > puts (6,578 vs 4,286), consistent with a mildly bullish positioning backdrop.
Orders/bookings strength highlighted by analysts (notably Baird/RBC commentary on bookings and organic revenue strength).
Analyst momentum: multiple price target increases and a notable UBS upgrade to Buy (adds incremental demand/support).
Hedge fund flow: “Hedge Funds are Buying” with a sharp increase in buying activity last quarter.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
and price nearing resistance (~220.
make chasing risky for immediate gratification.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $2.099B, +8.77% YoY (top-line growth solid; news also points to ~5% organic growth).
Profitability (snapshot/GAAP): Net income $282.1M (-80.36% YoY) and EPS 2.06 (-80.15% YoY) show a sharp YoY decline, likely influenced by non-operating/one-time items given the stronger “adjusted” EPS commentary in news.
Margin: Gross margin 39.1% (down ~0.31 YoY) suggests modest pressure, consistent with commentary about less-than-expected margin expansion.
Cash flow: News highlights strong free cash flow (~$487M), a meaningful positive for quality/growth durability.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Trend: Clear positive revisions cycle—many firms raised price targets following Q4 results and into early February.
Upgrades/positive calls: UBS upgraded to Buy (PT $256); Seaport reiterated Buy and raised PT to $245; Baird maintained Outperform and lifted PT to $255; Goldman maintained Buy and raised PT to $224; JPM maintained Overweight and raised PT to $230.
More cautious coverage remains: Barclays and Wells Fargo stay Equal Weight (PT ~205–206); RBC stays Sector Perform (PT ~209). These sub-current targets argue the stock may already be pricing a lot of good news.
Wall Street pros: order/bookings strength, portfolio transformation, acquisition optionality, and improved model/quality of earnings narrative.
Wall Street cons: guidance/growth outlook seen as only modest by some, margin expansion not as strong as hoped, and valuation support is less compelling after the recent run.
Wall Street analysts forecast DOV stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DOV is 221.64 USD with a low forecast of 195 USD and a high forecast of 256 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast DOV stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DOV is 221.64 USD with a low forecast of 195 USD and a high forecast of 256 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 217.550
Low
195
Averages
221.64
High
256
Current: 217.550
Low
195
Averages
221.64
High
256
Morgan Stanley
Christopher Snyder
Equal Weight
maintain
$195 -> $210
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Christopher Snyder
Price Target
$195 -> $210
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Christopher Snyder raised the firm's price target on Dover to $210 from $195 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares after updating the firm's model post-Q4 earnings and rolling forward estimates.
Seaport Research
Buy
maintain
$230 -> $245
2026-02-03
New
Reason
Seaport Research
Price Target
$230 -> $245
2026-02-03
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
Seaport Research raised the firm's price target on Dover to $245 from $230 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm believes the company's current valuation can step-up and notes it has seen an evolution in the company's business model into a high-performance machine, the analyst tells investors.
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