Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the setup is more “speculative bounce” than a high-conviction entry.
Technicals show mild oversold conditions, but trend confirmation is lacking (price still under/near key pivot and MACD remains negative).
Options positioning is bullish (low put/call), yet implied volatility is extremely elevated—suggesting the market is pricing large moves (often around events like earnings).
Fundamentals are deteriorating (losses widening, margins down), which limits upside conviction ahead of the 2026-02-24 pre-market earnings catalyst.
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: Price (3.22) is slightly below the pivot (3.267), suggesting the stock is still fighting overhead resistance rather than breaking out.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0316) but contracting → downside momentum is easing, not reversed.
RSI: 6-period RSI at 36.88 → near-oversold/weak, supports a possible short-term bounce but not a confirmed uptrend.
Moving averages: Converging MAs → consolidation/indecision rather than a clean trend.
Key levels: Support S1 ~3.07 (then S2 ~2.95); Resistance R1 ~3.46 (then R2 ~3.59). A strong buy setup would ideally reclaim/hold above ~3.27 and push through ~3.46.
Sentiment tilt: Put/call ratios are very low (OI 0.36, volume 0.18) → options flow positioning leans bullish.
Volatility: 30D IV ~132.28% with IV percentile ~79.68 → very high implied move expectations (options are expensive).
Activity: Today’s options volume (800) is below recent averages (vs 30D avg ~53.62%), suggesting no broad “rush” of fresh conviction today.
Takeaway: Bullish positioning, but the premium is rich—market is pricing a large swing, which reduces the attractiveness of chasing shares “right now” without a clear technical breakout.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
2
Positive Catalysts
contracting negative MACD can support a short-term bounce if support holds.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
with resistance stacked near ~3.46–3.
Analyst split: a major firm (Morgan Stanley) remains Underweight despite a small price-target increase.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $375.30M, down ~1.20% YoY → soft top-line trend.
Profitability: Net income -$19.44M (more negative YoY by ~149%) → losses widened.
EPS: -0.11 (more negative YoY by ~147.83%).
Gross margin: 13.24%, down ~17.04% YoY → margin compression is a key concern (costs/price mix pressure).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating/target trend is mixed:
2026-01-26 BofA: Buy maintained; price target cut to $5 from $6 (still sees meaningful upside from 3.22).
2026-01-20 Morgan Stanley: Underweight maintained; price target raised to $3 from $2.50 (still cautious, target near current price).
Wall Street pros: Some see valuation/upside optionality at depressed prices (BofA Buy) and the brand can drive seasonal demand.
Wall Street cons: Ongoing profitability/margin issues and uneven growth keep at least one major firm bearish (MS Underweight) and temper upside conviction.
Wall Street analysts forecast DNUT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DNUT is 4.5 USD with a low forecast of 3 USD and a high forecast of 6 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast DNUT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DNUT is 4.5 USD with a low forecast of 3 USD and a high forecast of 6 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 3.140
Low
3
Averages
4.5
High
6
Current: 3.140
Low
3
Averages
4.5
High
6
BofA
Buy
downgrade
$6 -> $5
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$6 -> $5
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
downgrade
Buy
Reason
BofA lowered the firm's price target on Krispy Kreme to $5 from $6 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is fine-tuning estimates for 22 restaurant companies across its coverage and adjusting select price targets to reflect estimate and valuation multiple changes.
Morgan Stanley
Underweight
maintain
$3
2026-01-20
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$3
2026-01-20
maintain
Underweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Krispy Kreme to $3 from $2.50 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares as part of the firm's 2026 outlook note on its restaurants and foodservice distributors coverage.
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