Should I Buy DLO? DLO 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Dlocal Ltd (DLO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

13.180

1 Day change

2.81%

52 Week Range

16.780

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Buy now (tactical entry): Price is sitting right on first support (S1 ~12.87) pre-market, which is a favorable “buy-near-support” setup for an impatient buyer.
Oversold + support: Short-term RSI is depressed (RSI_6 ~27), increasing bounce odds even though momentum is currently weak.
Sentiment skew is supportive: Options positioning is heavily call-skewed on open interest (Put/Call OI 0.16), aligning with bullish expectations.
Fundamentals/Street still constructive: Strong prior-quarter growth and analysts largely remain Buy/Overweight with targets well above the current price.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock today.

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.148) and negatively expanding, signaling downside momentum is still in control.
Mean-reversion setup: RSI_6 ~27 suggests the stock is short-term oversold, which often supports a bounce attempt if support holds.
Moving averages: Converging MAs indicates indecision/transition, not a clean uptrend yet.
Key levels:
- Support: S1 12.869 (price is essentially here), then S2 12.317.
- Resistance: Pivot 13.763, then R1 14.657.
Pattern-based forward bias (provided): Similar-candlestick analog suggests modest upside potential: ~+0.51% next day, +1.08% next week, +3.75% next month (probability noted as 50% in the dataset).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Neutral

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Put/Call open interest = 0.16 (call-heavy) with call OI ~88,139 vs put OI ~14,388 → market positioning leans bullish.
Flow today: Put/Call volume ratio = 1.0 (balanced intraday flow), with total volume 1,659 (well below 5D/10D averages), so today’s tape is not strongly directional.
Volatility: 30D IV ~67.26 vs historical vol ~38.36 → options are pricing elevated move expectations.
IV context: IV percentile ~69.7 (relatively high vs its own history), which often coincides with heightened event/earnings sensitivity.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Strong growth profile (latest provided quarter): 2025/Q3 revenue +52% YoY, net income +94% YoY, EPS +89% YoY supports the bull case.
- Street tone remains constructive: Recent actions include upgrades/initiations with Buy/Outperform/Overweight and targets substantially above spot.
- Macro/news tone supportive for EM/LatAm: Emerging markets strength and LatAm opportunity framing can help sentiment for names in the space.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Momentum still bearish: MACD continues to deteriorate, so the path of least resistance can remain down until a reversal confirms.
- Margin pressure: Gross margin fell to 36.53%, down ~13.19% YoY (latest provided quarter), which can cap multiple expansion.
- Event-driven volatility risk implied by options: Elevated IV suggests the market is pricing larger-than-normal moves (often around earnings/updates).
- News items are broad/sector-level: No clearly defined company-specific catalyst in the provided headlines beyond general pre-earnings attention.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter in dataset: 2025/Q3
- Revenue: $282.48M, +52.06% YoY (strong top-line acceleration).
- Net Income: $51.83M, +93.51% YoY (profit scaling faster than revenue).
- EPS: $0.17, +88.89% YoY.
- Gross Margin: 36.53%, -13.19% YoY (key watch item: profitability quality vs growth).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent rating/target trend (last ~2 months): Targets mostly raised/initiated into late 2025/early 2026, with a minor trim from JPMorgan on 2026-02-02.
Latest actions:
- (2026-02-02) JPMorgan: Overweight, PT $18 (down slightly from $18.50).
- (2026-01-20) Truist: Buy, PT $17 (raised from $16).
- (2025-12-17) Itau BBA: Outperform, PT $21 (initiation).
- (2025-12-11) Truist: Upgraded to Buy (from Hold), PT $16 (from $15).
Wall Street pros: Consistent Buy/Overweight bias and targets imply meaningful upside vs ~12.9.
Wall Street cons: Commentary flags potentially tougher comps and possible expectation resets via guidance; JPM’s small cut also signals some near-term caution.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast DLO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DLO is 16.67 USD with a low forecast of 15 USD and a high forecast of 19 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 12.820

Low

Averages

16.67

High

Current: 12.820

Low

Averages

16.67

High

JPMorgan

Overweight -> Overweight

downgrade

$18

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$18

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

downgrade

Overweight -> Overweight

Reason

JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on DLocal to $18 from $18.50 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares.

Truist

Buy

maintain

$16 -> $17

2026-01-20

Reason

Truist

Price Target

$16 -> $17

2026-01-20

maintain

Buy

Reason

Truist raised the firm's price target on DLocal to $17 from $16 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note previewing Q4 earnings in FinTech. The quarter's results should be solid, although a tougher y/y comparison may limit volume-related beats, and while Truist is optimistic on the group throughout 2026, some management teams may look to reset Street expectations a bit lower with their original 2026 guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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DLO Should I Buy

DLO Should I Buy

Should You Buy Dlocal Ltd (DLO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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