Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the stock is extended after a sharp move (+3.66% today) and is trading near the next resistance zone (~32.61).
Near-term risk/reward skews unfavorable into earnings (2026-02-25 pre-market; Street est. EPS -0.24), with recent analyst price-target cuts limiting upside conviction.
Options positioning is bullish (low put/call ratios), but that often accompanies crowded upside and doesn’t remove the “overbought/pullback” setup.
Trend: Bullish structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and MACD histogram positive and expanding (0.576), confirming upward momentum.
Overbought/extension: RSI_6 at 78.57 suggests the move is stretched; odds favor consolidation or a pullback rather than a clean immediate continuation.
Levels: Pivot support ~29.55 (key “line in the sand”); near resistance at R2 ~32.61 (price is currently ~32.10, close to resistance).
Short-term statistical pattern: similar-candlestick model implies modest near-term upside but a negative 1-month bias (-3.9%), aligning with “late in the move” risk.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Put/call ratios are very low (OI PCR 0.26; Volume PCR 0.19) = bullish/“call-skewed” sentiment.
Activity: Today’s option volume (269) is 49.7% of 30-day average (not a spike); open interest is elevated vs average (99% of avg), suggesting positioning is already built.
Volatility: 30D IV 60.76 vs historical vol 41.7 (IV > HV) and IV percentile ~55; options are pricing elevated event risk (consistent with upcoming earnings).
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Refining backdrop: Analysts cite widening light/heavy differentials and generally constructive longer-term refining outlook.
Policy/regulatory angle: UBS notes DK as a beneficiary of Small Refinery Exemptions (tailwind if maintained).
Company execution narrative: Prior commentary highlighted Enterprise Optimization Plan savings guidance raised (supports margin/efficiency story if maintained).
Options sentiment: Call-skewed positioning can support upside follow-through if price breaks and holds above ~32.61.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
increases gap-risk and can cap near-term multiples.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Growth trend: Revenue down -5.11% YoY to ~$2.887B.
Profitability: Net income down sharply YoY (-331.77%) to ~$178M; EPS down -343.33% YoY to 2.92.
Margin: Gross margin reported down materially YoY (as provided), indicating weaker year-over-year profitability dynamics and reinforcing “cycle sensitivity” into the next print.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend (Jan 2026): Predominantly Neutral/Equal Weight/Sector Perform with multiple price target reductions (e.g., Citi to $33; Scotiabank to $34; Morgan Stanley to $38; Piper to $40) — signaling tempered upside expectations.
Earlier/offsetting positives (Nov–Dec 2025): Some targets were raised post-Q3 execution, and Mizuho remains Outperform (previously higher PTs), but the more recent direction is downward revisions.
Wall Street cons: Cyclical earnings risk, crude/macro uncertainty, and valuation/forward crack updates pressuring near-term estimates.
Wall Street analysts forecast DK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DK is 40.91 USD with a low forecast of 33 USD and a high forecast of 53 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast DK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DK is 40.91 USD with a low forecast of 33 USD and a high forecast of 53 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
8 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 33.940
Low
33
Averages
40.91
High
53
Current: 33.940
Low
33
Averages
40.91
High
53
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
downgrade
$40 -> $38
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$40 -> $38
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Delek US to $38 from $40 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Refining stocks have risen by about 10% year-to-date on the back of widening light/heavy differentials following the recent Venezuela events, the analyst noted. Updating for the latest forward cracks, the firm's Q1 EPS estimates for its large-cap refiner coverage are about 5%-10% below consensus on average, the analyst tells investors in a Q4 preview for the group. On a long-term basis, the firm remains constructive on the refining outlook, but it reiterates an In-Line industry view driven by valuation.
Citi
Neutral
downgrade
$37 -> $33
2026-01-26
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$37 -> $33
2026-01-26
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Citi lowered the firm's price target on Delek US to $33 from $37 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
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