Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is extended short-term (RSI73) and sitting just below/near the next resistance zone (162.6), which raises near-term pullback risk.
Trend is still constructive (positive/expanding MACD and relative strength vs. S&P 500 today), so this is more of a HOLD than a SELL.
Options positioning is mixed (OI put-call ~1.03 slightly defensive; volume put-call ~0.63 more call-leaning), suggesting no clear “all-in bullish” conviction.
Fundamentals in the latest reported quarter (2026/Q1) are weakening YoY (revenue, EPS, margins down) and insiders are net sellers—this reduces the urgency to buy at a near-term high.
No recent congress trading data to support a momentum/catalyst buy case.
SwingMax: Entry signal triggered on 2026-01-09; stock is up ~2.11% since. Signal is still valid but current price is no longer a “buy-low” location (closer to resistance).
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: Current 159.22 is above R1 (158.956) after a strong up day; next resistance R2 ~162.61. Key pivot/support to watch is ~153.04; below that, S1 ~147.13.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.235) and expanding → bullish momentum intact.
Overbought risk: RSI(6) ~73.6 → short-term stretched; odds favor consolidation/pullback rather than immediate clean continuation.
Moving averages: Converging MAs → trend is stabilizing, but not a high-conviction breakout setup.
Pattern-based odds: Similar-candlestick model indicates ~70% chance of -0.39% next day, but +1.42% next week and +2.22% next month → mild near-term dip risk with modest upside over weeks.
Relative strength today: DHI +3.38% while S&P 500 -0.85% → buyers are active, but that also increases “chase risk” at this level.
Options Data
Neutral
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Open-interest put/call ~1.03 is slightly defensive/hedged; volume put/call ~0.63 is call-leaning intraday → mixed-to-slightly bullish flow.
Volatility: IV(30d) ~39.5 vs historical vol ~37.4 → options slightly rich; IV percentile ~62 suggests elevated implied vol vs its own history.
Activity: Today’s option volume is light vs 30D average (~26.8%), but open interest is sizeable (total OI ~80k), implying positioning is already built rather than aggressively added today.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Stock showing strong relative performance today (+3.38% vs S&P 500 -0.85%), supporting the case for underlying demand.
Hedge funds are reportedly buying aggressively (buying amount +1894% QoQ), a supportive positioning signal.
Several analysts still see upside (e.g., UBS PT 193 Buy; Argus PT 185 Buy; BTIG PT 182 Buy), implying potential valuation/multiple expansion if housing demand stabilizes.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
showed broad YoY deterioration: revenue -9.54%, EPS -22.22%, net income -29.6%, gross margin down to 23.3%.
Takeaway: Growth trend is negative YoY, which makes buying strength (near resistance) less attractive right now.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: mixed—some firms raised targets post-results (Argus to 185 Buy; UBS to 193 Buy; Evercore to 169 In Line), but several cut targets citing margin/incentive pressure and tougher spring outlook (BofA to 158 Neutral; Barclays to 129 Equal Weight; Keefe Bruyette to 163 Market Perform; RBC to 117 Underperform).
Wall Street “pros” case: Large builder advantage, affordable-home focus, and potential demand/multiple recovery if rates ease and spring selling improves.
Wall Street “cons” case: Margins likely remain pressured (incentives), affordability still challenging, and a reset year scenario through 2026; notable dispersion in targets (bulls ~185–193 vs bears ~117–129) signals uncertainty.
Wall Street analysts forecast DHI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DHI is 157 USD with a low forecast of 117 USD and a high forecast of 191 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast DHI stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DHI is 157 USD with a low forecast of 117 USD and a high forecast of 191 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
6 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 158.130
Low
117
Averages
157
High
191
Current: 158.130
Low
117
Averages
157
High
191
Keefe Bruyette
Market Perform
downgrade
$168 -> $163
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$168 -> $163
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
downgrade
Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette lowered the firm's price target on D.R. Horton to $163 from $168 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.
Argus
Chris Graja
Buy
maintain
$175 -> $185
2026-01-23
Reason
Argus
Chris Graja
Price Target
$175 -> $185
2026-01-23
maintain
Buy
Reason
Argus analyst Chris Graja raised the firm's price target on D.R. Horton to $185 from $175 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is bullish on the need for affordable homes, the relative advantage of large builders in the current environment, the company's expertise in delivering affordable homes, and its top-tier financial strength in the industry, the analyst tells investors in a research note. A recent catalyst coinciding with a decline of 20 basis points in the benchmark mortgage rate has been President Trump's statement this month that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would buy $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities, the firm added.
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