Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is sitting near the pivot (~146) with bearish-leaning options positioning and no proprietary buy signals.
Near-term upside exists (analyst targets mostly above spot; fundamentals improving), but risk/reward is less attractive until DG clears ~151 resistance or pulls back closer to ~141 support.
Congress trading has been exclusively selling in the last 90 days, which adds caution to initiating immediately.
Technical Analysis
Price/trend: Trading near the pivot (146.186) at 146.655, suggesting an indecisive/mean-reversion zone rather than a clean breakout.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -1.076 (below zero) but negatively contracting → downside momentum is fading, yet trend has not turned bullish.
RSI(6)=54.7 (neutral) → no overbought/oversold edge.
Moving averages: Converging MAs → consolidation and potential for a larger move, but direction not confirmed.
Levels: Immediate resistance R1=151.052 (needs a break to confirm upside); support S1=141.319 then S2=138.312 (more attractive dip area).
Positioning: Put open interest exceeds calls (OI put/call=1.41) → cautious-to-bearish bias.
Flow: Put volume dominance is extreme (put/call volume=8.55; puts 2343 vs calls 274) → strong near-term hedging/speculation to the downside.
Activity: Today’s option volume is ~13.6x the 30-day average → sentiment signal is meaningful (not noise).
Volatility: 30d IV 36.23 vs HV 30.06 (IV premium) with IV percentile ~53 → options pricing implies elevated uncertainty; not a clear “cheap vol” setup.
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
may be viewed as continuity/refresh rather than disruption.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Options market is signaling near-term downside protection/negative sentiment (very high put volume ratio), which often caps immediate upside.
Congress trading (last 90 days): 4 trades, all sales, no purchases → influential-flow signal is net negative.
Technical picture is not yet bullish (MACD still below zero; price below key resistance ~151).
Trading trends: hedge funds and insiders reported as neutral (no supportive accumulation signal).
Recent trend: Clear upward shift in targets and tone since mid-Dec, including JPMorgan upgrade to Overweight (PT 166), Deutsche Bank Buy (PT 170), Barclays Overweight (PT 151), Bernstein Outperform (PT 150). More neutral shops (Evercore In Line PT 145; Truist Hold PT 144; Wells Equal Weight PT 125) also raised targets.
Wall Street pros (bull case): improving comp/earnings trajectory, “back on offense” narrative, potential consumer/tax-related tailwinds, and multiple Buy-rated firms with targets well above spot.
Wall Street cons (bear case): several major firms remain Hold/In Line/Equal Weight, implying upside may be more gradual/valuation-dependent; macro setup for value/low-income consumer can still be mixed.
Politicians/influentials: Congress activity is net selling (0 buys / 4 sells), which is a notable negative signal versus the otherwise improving analyst backdrop.
Wall Street analysts forecast DG stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DG is 143.86 USD with a low forecast of 125 USD and a high forecast of 170 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast DG stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DG is 143.86 USD with a low forecast of 125 USD and a high forecast of 170 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 144.900
Low
125
Averages
143.86
High
170
Current: 144.900
Low
125
Averages
143.86
High
170
UBS
Buy
upgrade
$143 -> $168
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$143 -> $168
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
upgrade
Buy
Reason
UBS raised the firm's price target on Dollar General to $168 from $143 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
Evercore ISI
In Line
maintain
$143 -> $145
2026-02-03
New
Reason
Evercore ISI
Price Target
$143 -> $145
2026-02-03
New
maintain
In Line
Reason
Evercore ISI raised the firm's price target on Dollar General to $145 from $143 and keeps an In Line rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets among its Retail Broadlines & Hardlines coverage.
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