Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is extended/overbought and sitting near resistance after a sharp run.
Current price ($567) is above nearly all recent Street price targets (mostly $515–$560), implying limited near-term upside vs. downside into earnings.
With earnings imminent (Feb 17 pre-market / Feb 19 call) and insiders net selling, risk/reward skews unfavorable for a fresh chase here.
Technical Analysis
Trend is clearly bullish: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 and MACD histogram (3.519) is positive and expanding.
Momentum is overheated: RSI_6 at 88.34 signals overbought conditions and higher pullback risk.
Key levels: Pivot 534.84 (first meaningful support area); resistance R2 572.99 (current price 567 is close, leaving limited upside before supply).
Pattern-based forward look (provided): 80% chance of -0.56% next day, -0.54% next week, -3.92% next month → suggests mean reversion after the spike rather than a clean continuation.
Options Data
Neutral
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning is near-neutral on open interest (OI put/call 0.97), while daily volume skews bullish (volume put/call 0.74).
Implied volatility is elevated vs. history: IV30 34.1 vs historical vol 28.49; IV percentile 79.68 → market is pricing a bigger move (notably ahead of earnings).
Today’s option activity is light vs recent averages (today vs 30D avg volume 25.75%), but open interest is high (today vs OI avg 91.22%), consistent with existing positioning into the event rather than fresh aggressive chasing today.
Technical Summary
Sell
6
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Near-term event: Q1 FY2026 earnings (Feb 17 pre-market) can act as a catalyst if guidance/precision ag commentary surprises positively.
U.S. manufacturing headline catalyst: announced $70M excavator facility in North Carolina (politically favorable / “made in USA” angle).
Several bullish/positive long-term framework takeaways from the investor day (2030 targets) increased conviction for some analysts (e.g., Morgan Stanley).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
near resistance increases probability of a pullback for any impatient entry.
Profitability weakened: Net income $1.065B, -14.46% YoY; EPS 3.93, -13.63% YoY.
Margins compressed: Gross margin 35.9%, -12.52% YoY → confirms cycle/mix/cost headwinds even as revenue rose.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent rating/target trend is mixed but generally constructive long-term, with multiple Outperform/Buy calls; however, targets cluster below the current price.
Notable updates: Morgan Stanley Overweight raised PT to $560; UBS Buy PT $535 reiterated; RBC Outperform PT ~$541; Oppenheimer Outperform PT $531; Wells Fargo initiated Overweight PT $543.
More cautious voices: Citi Neutral PT $515; Jefferies Hold PT $475; Evercore In Line PT $458.
Wall Street “pros” view: long-term precision ag/tech + cycle recovery potential into 2027 and beyond.
Wall Street “cons” view: near-term ag cycle still murky, guidance risk, and current valuation/price already discounts much of the 2030 upside (especially with shares now above most targets).
Influential/political activity check: Congress trades in last 90 days were balanced (4 buys vs 4 sells; buys larger median size), not a clear directional signal.
Wall Street analysts forecast DE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DE is 514.25 USD with a low forecast of 458 USD and a high forecast of 560 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast DE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DE is 514.25 USD with a low forecast of 458 USD and a high forecast of 560 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 565.730
Low
458
Averages
514.25
High
560
Current: 565.730
Low
458
Averages
514.25
High
560
Jefferies
Stephen Volkmann
Hold
maintain
$440 -> $475
AI Analysis
2025-12-09
Reason
Jefferies
Stephen Volkmann
Price Target
$440 -> $475
AI Analysis
2025-12-09
maintain
Hold
Reason
Jefferies analyst Stephen Volkmann raised the firm's price target on Deere to $475 from $440 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares after management outlined a "sharpened 2030 framework" with "no major surprises" at the company's analyst day meeting. Deere targets 10% sales CAGR and 20% cycle average margins in 2030, notes the analyst, who sees shares already pricing in about $50 per share in EPS in 2030 at a price of $466. This suggests upside from here requires a cycle turn, the analyst added.
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
maintain
$500 -> $560
2025-12-09
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$500 -> $560
2025-12-09
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Deere to $560 from $500 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares after the company outlined "an attractive long-term earnings path" during its investor day meeting. Deere issued 2030 targets of 10% equipment operating sales compound annual growth to about $63B with better than expected top-line growth despite a more gradual Precision Ag ramp, says the analyst, who adds that the event "raises our conviction" in the long-term attractiveness of Deere shares.
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