Should I Buy DAWN? DAWN 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Day One Biopharmaceuticals Inc (DAWN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

11.410

1 Day change

8.87%

52 Week Range

13.200

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: near-term momentum is bearish (sharp drop, MACD worsening) and price is trading below a key support zone.
Longer-term upside case still exists (bullish moving-average stack and Street price targets still far above spot), but the current tape favors stabilization first rather than immediate entry.
No Intellectia proprietary buy signals today/recently, so there’s no “must-buy-now” edge from the provided trading systems.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: Down -5.47% to 10.53 in regular session (pre-market +1.79%), indicating active selling pressure intraday.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.143 and negatively expanding → bearish momentum strengthening.
RSI: RSI(6)=36.5 → weak/near-oversold, but not a confirmed reversal signal by itself.
Moving Averages: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 → bullish longer-trend structure, but current momentum is pulling back against that trend.
Levels: Pivot 11.775 overhead. S1=10.793 (price is below it → prior support failed). Next support S2=10.186; resistance R1=12.756.
Pattern-based odds (next moves): ~0.16% next day, 0.84% next week, 3.76% next month → modest positive drift, but not strong enough to override current downside momentum.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning vs flow is mixed: low OI put/call (0.38) suggests longer-dated positioning is more call-heavy (bullish skew), but today’s put/call volume at 3.1 signals near-term caution/hedging.
Activity spike: today’s option volume 529 with ~9.89x vs 30-day average → elevated attention/event positioning.
Volatility: IV30 ~89.37 vs HV ~105.37; IV Rank ~17.66 / IV Percentile ~32.67 → options are not priced at extreme fear levels despite the selloff (can be interpreted as either complacency or expectation that realized vol cools).
Open interest: Calls 41,175 vs Puts 15,697 → call OI dominance supports a longer-term bullish bias, but near-term tape is still fragile.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Bullish longer-term technical structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_
suggests the bigger trend can remain intact if support re-forms.
implies market participants are positioned more for upside than downside in outstanding contracts.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

with MACD worsening → sellers in control right now.
and volume is unusually high → suggests active hedging/speculation into weakness.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 39.80M, down -57.56% YoY → major top-line contraction.
Net Income: -19.73M, down -153.26% YoY → losses widened materially.
EPS: -0.19, down -150.00% YoY → profitability trend deteriorated.
Gross Margin: 88.74%, down -9.73% YoY → still high, but trending lower.
Takeaway: growth and earnings trends are negative in the latest quarter, which makes momentum-driven buying after a breakdown less attractive.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

2026-01-29: TD Cowen cut price target to $24 from $34, maintained Buy → still bullish but expectations reset lower.
2025-11-07: JPMorgan raised price target to $27 from $26, maintained Overweight → bullish stance reiterated.
Street pros (pros): Targets ($24–$27) imply large upside from 10.53; ratings remain positive.
Street cons (cons): Recent target cut shows confidence tempered ahead of results; near-term fundamentals (Q3) weaken the case for chasing immediately.

9 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast DAWN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for DAWN is 24.13 USD with a low forecast of 16 USD and a high forecast of 34 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

8 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 10.480

Low

Averages

24.13

High

Current: 10.480

Low

Averages

24.13

High

TD Cowen

Buy

downgrade

$34 -> $24

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

Reason

TD Cowen

Price Target

$34 -> $24

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

downgrade

Buy

Reason

TD Cowen lowered the firm's price target on Day One Biopharmaceuticals to $24 from $34 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm updated its model ahead of Q4 results.

JPMorgan

NULL -> Overweight

maintain

$26 -> $27

2025-11-07

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$26 -> $27

2025-11-07

maintain

NULL -> Overweight

Reason

JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Day One Biopharmaceuticals to $27 from $26 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm updated the company's model.

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DAWN Should I Buy

DAWN Should I Buy

Should You Buy Day One Biopharmaceuticals Inc (DAWN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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