Not a good buy right now: technicals are bullish but momentum is cooling (MACD histogram positive but contracting) and price is sitting near resistance (R1 ~37.36) after a mild pullback.
Options positioning is strongly call-skewed (very low put/call ratios), which can be supportive near-term, but it also suggests the trade is crowded on the bullish side.
Near-term statistical pattern signal points to weak 1-month expectancy (-4.04%), and earnings (2026-02-23, est EPS -0.21) is an event risk that doesn’t favor an impatient “buy-now” approach.
Intellectia signals are absent today, removing a key “strong buy” trigger.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages stacked up (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram at 0.098 (above zero) but positively contracting → upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
RSI: RSI_6 at 62.46 (neutral-to-mildly bullish), not overbought but not a deep value entry either.
Levels: Pivot 36.465; support S1 35.571 (then S2 35.019). Resistance R1 37.359 (then R2 37.911). Price 36.77 is closer to resistance than support, limiting immediate upside-to-downside.
Pattern-based outlook: +1.03% next day, +0.22% next week, but -4.04% next month (near-term chop risk).
Activity: Today’s option volume 34 vs 30-day avg ~132 (below average), but volume vs avg shows 9.77x (data suggests a spike vs a low baseline day); verify at tape-level if trading size matters.
Volatility: 30D IV 38.13 vs HV 32.96 → options pricing implies elevated forward uncertainty; IV percentile ~55 (mid-range), not extreme.
Takeaway: Options lean bullish, but the skew also increases the chance of disappointment/mean reversion if catalysts don’t land.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Sector demand tailwind highlighted by analysts: renewables supply-demand imbalance and rising electricity demand (e.g., AI data centers) could support contracted power/asset values.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
can pressure the stock if guidance or CAFD metrics disappoint.
Financial Performance
2025/Q3: Revenue $429M, down 11.73% YoY (top-line contraction).
2025/Q3: Net income $236M, up 555.56% YoY; EPS 2.00, up 545.16% YoY (very large jump—likely influenced by non-recurring items/asset marks rather than pure operating growth).
2025/Q3: Gross margin 29.14%, down 24.27% YoY (profitability pressure at the gross level despite higher net income).
Growth read: mixed—headline EPS/net income surged, but underlying revenue and gross margin trends are weakening.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: ratings and targets have been moving up (broadly constructive).
2025-12-16: CIBC upgraded to Outperformer (from Neutral), PT $38.
2025-12-10: UBS reiterated Buy, PT raised to $39 (post-Q3 model update; demand tailwinds noted).
2025-12-02: Morgan Stanley reiterated Overweight, PT raised to $50 (sector framework update).
2025-11-24: Roth reiterated Buy, PT raised to $40 (sees potential to revise 2030 targets higher).
Wall Street pros: strong long-term cash-flow visibility and structural demand tailwinds.
Wall Street cons: near-term earnings variability and the market may already be leaning bullish given positioning.
Wall Street analysts forecast CWEN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CWEN is 39.29 USD with a low forecast of 34 USD and a high forecast of 50 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CWEN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CWEN is 39.29 USD with a low forecast of 34 USD and a high forecast of 50 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 37.580
Low
34
Averages
39.29
High
50
Current: 37.580
Low
34
Averages
39.29
High
50
CIBC
Neutral -> Outperformer
upgrade
$38
AI Analysis
2025-12-16
Reason
CIBC
Price Target
$38
AI Analysis
2025-12-16
upgrade
Neutral -> Outperformer
Reason
CIBC upgraded Clearway Energy to Outperformer from Neutral with a $38 price target.
BofA
Buy
maintain
$37 -> $38
2025-12-10
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$37 -> $38
2025-12-10
maintain
Buy
Reason
BofA raised the firm's price target on Clearway Energy to $38 from $37 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after having hosted an investor fireside chat with CEO Craig Cornelius, who emphasized Clearway's strong visibility for 7%-8% annual cash available for distribution per share growth from 2025 through 2030. As a result, the firm increased its cash available for distribution per share estimates for 2026-2027 "slightly," the analyst tells investors.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CWEN
